NUNTHORPE STAKES TRENDS 2016

[ganjaman2]

The Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes is one of the sprinting highlights of the British flat season and is the big race on the card of the third day of York’s Ebor meeting on Friday 19th August. Fillies have done really well in the race recently and last year’s winner, Mecca’s Angel, may look to give the females another win in this, as long as the ground isn't too quick.

Below we take a look at trends for the past 10 runnings at York (2005-2015):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
2yo: 1-2-7
3yo: 2-4-33
4yo: 3-5-32
5yo: 1-1-25
6yo+: 3-8-60
horses aged 2 to 5: 6-11-94
horses aged 6 or older: 4-9-56
Of the seven 2yo runners, only 3 made the first 3 in a Royal Ascot race: Acapulco, Kingsgate Native & Radiohead. They were the three to make the frame in this, finishing 2nd, 1st and 3rd.
4 of last 5 winners aged 3 ran in a Newmarket group 1 as 2yos (4th & 3rd Dewhurst, 1st Middle Park & 5th in Cheveley Park)

Gender
Fillies/mares (5-2-29) have won 5 of the last 10 (including the last 4 in which there was a female runner) from less than 19% of total runners.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season
9 of 10 winners had won that season (exception was a 2yo maiden)
8 of 10 winners had won a class 1 sprint that year (one exception was 2nd in group 3 & listed race on 2 runs that year)
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out (8 of 9 in a class 1 race)
7 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 112+ in their last 3 runs
10 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a group or listed race
4 of 10 winners had won at York (3 others placed here, and 3 others having first course run)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Mecca's Angel): 803167 (1-1-6) includes Newmarket running
Scarborough Stakes winner (Cotai Glory): 0331 (1-2-4)
Palace House Stakes winner (Profitable): 7050315 (1-1-7)
Sandown Scurry Stakes winner (Easton Angel): 619 (1-0-3)
Temple Stakes winner (Profitable): 1809658 (1-0-7)
King George Stakes winner (Take Cover): 006681086 (1-0-9)
Kings Stand winner (Profitable): 90335 (0-2-5)
Coral Charge winner (Brando): 36763 (0-2-5)
Norfolk Stakes winner (Prince Of Lir): 3 (0-1-1)
July Cup winner (Limato): 2 (0-1-1)
Abbaye winner (Goldream): 20 (0-1-2)
Sapphire Stakes winner (Mecca's Angel): 50200 (0-1-5)
Westow Stakes winner (Easton Angel): 90 (0-0-2)
Molecomb Stakes winner (Yalta): 000 (0-0-3)
Record of horses that finished on first 4 from Palace House Stakes: 70315161253521P05 (4-4-17)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 4341
3 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 091
3 of 10 winners ran in the King George Stakes last time, finishing 410
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Abbaye, finishing 36
2 of 10 winners ran in Sapphire Stakes, finishing 62
2 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in City Walls Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cammidge Trophy, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Scarborough Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 5 female winners ran in Land O'Burns Stakes, finishing 12
4 of last 5 winners aged 3 finished in first 5 in a group 1 as a 2yo at Newmarket

Trainers
British-trained runners: 7-14-132
Irish-trained runners: 2-4-14
Australian-trained: 1-0-2
USA-trained: 0-1-1
South African-trained: 0-1-3
French-trained runners: 0-0-5
Eddie Lynam (2-1-6) has trained Sole Power to win it in 2010 & 2014 and finish 3rd in 2013.
Robert Cowell (1-2-7) trained the 3rd in 2011, 2nd in 2012 and 40/1 winner in 2013.
Michael Dods (1-0-1) trained Mecca’s Angel to win this in 2015.
Kevin Ryan (0-3-16) has filled 3 places from 16 runners since 2005.
Aidan O’Brien (0-1-2 trained the winner in 1999 & 2001 (both had run in the Jersey Stakes). 2 of his 3 runners since 2001 have been placed.
Henry Candy (0-0-3) trained the winner in 2002 but has seen his last 3 runners finish unplaced.

Draw
horses drawn 1 to 4: 2-7-40
horses drawn 5 to 8: 3-4-40
horses drawn 9 to 12: 5-5-40
horses drawn 13 or higher: 0-4-37
Last 6 winners have been drawn 7 to 12.

Price
No strong trends on prices, the first 4 winners from 2000 were favourites however 5 of last 8 winners have gone off 12/1, 9/1, 100/1, 20/1 & 40/1.
Favourites (2-4-11) have won 2 of last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 renewals you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 2 that had won or placed at Royal Ascot
- Aged 3 that finished in first 5 in Newmarket group 1 as a 2yo or
- Aged 4+ that has won a group 1 or 2
- Fillies & mares do well (especially those that ran in Land O'Burns Stakes)
- Won a listed or group sprint in 2016
- Posted an RPR of 112+ in last 3 starts
- Previously won a group 1 or 2 sprint
- Has won over 5F
- Ran in King’s Stand, King George Stakes and/or 2015 Abbaye
- Finished in first 4 in Temple, Cammidge, Sapphire, City Walls and/or Palace House Stakes
- Trained by Eddie Lynam, Robert Cowell or Aidan O’Brien
- Drawn 7 to 12
- Do not discount longshots