Yorks Ebor Meeting Day 1 - 17/8/2016

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1.55 York – Symphony Group Stakes (Handicap)




As ever, The Ebor Festival gets underway with a devilishly difficult cavalry charge where most of the field have a realistic chance. Boom The Groom is likely to have a raft of followers after landing a big gamble at Goodwood last month. Tony Carroll’s charge has proven to be a much better proposition on the all-weather throughout his career but he looked to be well at home on turf last time despite that being his first win on grass since landing a Fairyhouse maiden on his racecourse debut for David Marnane over three years ago. A 4lb rise for his latest success seems relatively fair but following up in a race as competitive as this off a career-high mark will be no mean feat.


Bowson Fred finished third behind him that day and has been most consistent all season. His improvement as a four-year-old has been notable and although he now finds himself on a mark 22lb higher than when starting the campaign, he has proven the last twice that he can still be competitive. He is a perennial front runner and sees his races out really well but does have the tendency to get a bit wound up on the way to the start and has blown his chances with tardy breaks in the past.


His stablemate Hoofalong has found life tough the last twice but if recapturing the form that saw him land the Scottish Sprint Cup at Musselburgh back in June, he could have a role to play. However, he is another that turns out to be his own worst enemy at times and may just be handicapped to the hilt at present.


Duke of Firenze ran a blinder to finish third behind the Mick Easterby inmate on that occasion and bounced back from a couple of lacklustre efforts when a close up fifth in the Stewards’ Cup last time out. That was especially impressive given that five furlongs has always been his trip and the half a furlong drop back here will be in his favour. The assessor may still have him in his grip though.


Paul Midgley often pops up with one in the valuable sprint handicaps and he has a couple of chances here. Line of Reason looks to hold the strongest claims having stayed on well into second in the Shergar Cup Dash earlier in the month. That was his first run back in a handicap for over a year and the six-year-old proved that a mark of 105 doesn’t look insurmountable. His stablemate Ninjago was way back in ninth that day and although he continues to tumble down the handicap, he looks particularly out of form and can only be watched until showing signs of a revival.


Union Rose finished eighth in the same Ascot heat but as has been all too frequent an occurrence, Ron Harris’ charge damaged his chances before the start. If on a going day, he is a real contender, but does prove to be a particularly risky proposition given temperament seems to be getting the better of him.


Kevin Ryan landed back-to-back renewals of this in 2013 & 2014 and has only a sole representative this time around with Lexington Abbey. The five-year-old has remained in form since bagging a Nottingham conditions event on his seasonal bow back in April and was a decent fifth over a furlong further in the Sky Bet Dash. His four career wins have all been at Nottingham though so although he could well finish in the frame, that may be the best we could expect from him.


Two starts back he finished a close up third in a valuable handicap at Ascot and that race could prove to be a good marker here. ROYAL BIRTH just came out on top that day, taking advantage of his much lower turf mark. He proved that to be no fluke though when finishing a good third in a similar contest next time out and has been dropped 1lb on the back of that effort. His all-weather mark is 6lb higher than the 94 he races off here and given that he has now proven his effectiveness on turf, he is a major player.


Robot Boy split the two in the aforementioned Ascot race and showed his best form for some time in the process. He has lined up in this contest for each of the last two years and was fourth off 6lb higher back in 2014. He has won off a much higher mark in the past and I think there will be a big race to be won with him sooner rather than later.


Another that had been knocking on the door bagging a valuable pot was Harry Hurricane prior to his win over course and distance in the Spring Sprint back in May. He had excuses the next twice, when drawn on the wrong side in the Epsom Dash and stumbling at the start at Ascot, and showed that he remained in top form when fifth behind Boom The Groom last time out. He was slowly away that day and wasn’t beaten all that far in the end so a 1lb drop in the handicap looks pretty generous. He is a big danger.


My Advice




ROYAL BIRTH– 0.75pt e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power)





2.30 York – Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group 3)




This race often throws up a smart performer and this year’s race looks to have the same potential with a number of interesting colts taking their chance.


The likely market leader is Hugo Palmer’s Best Of Days who may have been slowly away from the stalls at Sandown on his debut, but there was nothing slow about the way he came home. He cruised into the lead on the bridle under Jim Crowley and once he was shaken up inside the final furlong, he stretched clear to win by six lengths at the line. He has since been purchased by Godolphin so will wear the familiar royal blue silks for the first time here and he has entries in the Champagne Stakes and the Royal Lodge later in the campaign. The form of his maiden win hasn’t worked out too well in recent weeks and for all he was well on top at the line, I personally think he is short enough at around the 7/4 mark.


Aidan O’Brien hasn’t won this race since 2000 and that is largely due to the fact that he tends not to send his best juveniles over for it. This year he is represented by Courage Under Fire who turned in a career best when second to stablemate Caravaggio in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh. The quicker ground made all the difference on that occasion and he should relish similar conditions here, however he failed to get home over 7f on his penultimate start and 6f might be as far as he wants to go at the moment.


On official ratings, the highest-rated member of the field is Mark Johnston’s Bear Valley who defied a sizeable weight to win a valuable nursery at Goodwood’s Glorious meeting a few weeks ago. The colt appears to be improving with racing and he beat two useful stablemates in pretty ready fashion on that occasion. This step into Group company promises to be a different kettle of fish and for all he sets a pretty high standard, I think he will find one or two too good on the day.


Richard Hannon’s Majeste has been well-supported on both of his starts to date and he got off the mark at the second attempt when winning at Newbury in July. The Acclamation colt only got into top gear in the last half furlong and he shaped as though a step up to seven furlongs would suit him. He is another with a number of lofty entries but the Hannon team don’t have the greatest of records in this so it might be best to look elsewhere.


The one that stands out is LOCKHEED who ran very well on his debut at Ascot but just bumped into the smart Frankel colt Seven Heavens. He made no mistake when winning at Goodwood last time and although he only won by half a length, I’m not entirely convinced he handled the track at Goodwood too well. He showed a good turn of foot once he got out into the clear and I think a more conventional track like York should suit him a bit better. His trainer William Haggas has won this race twice in the last five years so he knows what sort of horse it takes and with further improvement to come from this colt, he gets the nod in what looks an open race.


We should also mention the two Kevin Ryan colts in the line-up Syphax and Tommy Taylor as the yard like to have winners here on the Knavesmire. The latter won over course and distance in July before being narrowly beaten in a handicap a couple of weeks ago and will need to step forward to contend here. However, the first named did almost everything wrong on his debut at Musselburgh but still managed to win in cosy fashion at the line. He cost 100,000 euros at the sales and he appeals most of those at bigger prices.


My Advice


LOCKHEED – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Paddy Power)





3.05 York – Betway Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2)




Aidan O’Brien has got a surprisingly poor record in the Great Voltigeur in recent years with the likes of Yellowstone, Seville and Bondi Beach all failing to justify favouritism. Nevertheless, Ballydoyle look to hold a very strong hand this year with half of the field and it is difficult to see past Irish Derby runner-up IDAHO. A full-brother to King George winner Highland Reel, who lines up in the Juddmonte International later in the afternoon, the strapping Galileo colt has finished placed in both the English and Irish Derbys and without Harzand and stablemate US Army Ranger in opposition this time round, he should have his day in the sun. He has shown his best form with a bit of cut in the ground but was mightily impressive when taking his maiden on good to firm and the sounder underfoot conditions here shouldn’t prove too much of a concern. The fact that he hasn’t manage to get on the scoresheet since his debut success is a marginal worry but you can’t really knock his efforts in some highly competitive heats this term and he looks to get in here on very favourable terms being at least 11lb better off than the remainder of the field.


Of the remainder of the Ballydoyle trio, The Major General looks most likely to make the running and ran a blinder when runner-up to Ulysses in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last month. He showed some real battling qualities having been hard pressed in the final two furlongs and kept going all the way to the line to only go down by half a length. He probably lacks a bit of class to take this but could nab a place if trying to steal it from the front.


Housesofparliament rounds off the O’Brien challenge and arrives here on the back of a decent win in the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket’s July Festival. The firmer ground looks to bring the best out of him so conditions here should be perfect. However, the form of his win at HQ has taken a few hits with second and third, Platitude and the re-opposing Harrison, filling the last two places in the Gordon Stakes next time out and the suspicion is that the drop back to 1m4f may not prove totally in his favour. Also, on his King Edward VII Stakes fourth at Royal Ascot, he looks to have a bit to find with Across The Stars.


Sir Michael Stoute’s colt stayed on strongly at the Royal Meeting back in June as he bounced back from a disappointing display in the Derby, when not handling the track at all well. He has the burden of a 3lb penalty for that win here though so really does look to have his work cut out conceding weight all round. Nevertheless, he does have the best winning form on offer and hails from a yard who have landed this contest twice in the last five years so could be the one to give the selection most to do.


Completing the field is Imperial Aviator, who hasn’t been seen since finishing down the field in the French Derby. We still don’t really know how good he is as although he was particularly impressive when sluicing up in the London Gold Cup at Sandown, that level of form is way below what will be required here. He went up 14lb for his Sandown win but would likely need to improve by another 15-20lb to get involved here and that would be a massive ask.


My Advice




IDAHO – 1.5pt win @ 10/11 (Bet365, SkyBet)





3.40 York – Juddmonte International Stakes (Group 1)




With five other Group 1 winners in the race, Wednesday’s Juddmonte International looks a cracking renewal of the race, but it is a race that seems to revolve around the top class Postponed from the Roger Varian stable. He seems to have improved again after leaving Luca Cumani’s and on the level that we’ve seen from all of these so far, if the five-year-old runs up to his best, he should win quite comfortably as he holds many of these rivals on form compiled both in Dubai and over here. However, there are a couple of niggling doubts about the 6/4 favourite that have to be looked at.


Firstly, he’s never won over ten furlongs in his career – the son of Dubawi is certainly a top-class horse over a mile and a half, but he’s been beaten by the likes of Al Kazeem, Western Hymn and Cannock Chase over the shorter trip in the past two years, even on his preferred fast ground, so it could be that he needs that extra couple of furlongs to be at his absolute best. It will be interesting to see how fast the pacemaker, King Bolete, takes them out, especially with the trailblazing King George winner, Highland Reel, in the field who will also be wanting to push the pace early on. If the pace is very strong, that should help him, and connections seem very confident that because he’s such a strong traveller with a turn of foot, he’ll handle the drop in trip with no issues.


The other worry is the state of Varian’s stable at the moment – it’s been well-documented that there has been an infection going around and Postponed did indeed miss the King George due to this, so we don’t know if he’ll be completely over that or not. Again, connections seem confident that the horse is back to himself again and Varian did have a winner at Doncaster on Saturday, so the signs are good that his horses are coming out the other side of the illness now. These doubts do stick in the mind, especially given his very short price, but POSTPONED is top-class, that’s not questioned, and it could be that ability that can get him through here.


Highland Reel’s victory in the King George was close to a career-best for the four-year-old, matching his rating from when he beat Flintshire and the re-opposing Dariyan in the Hong Kong Vase in December, and he will be a big threat if able to dictate as he did there. However, the presence of the pacemaker, King Bolete, could well be detrimental to his chance as it wouldn’t surprise me if the Roger Varian-trained second string was not only in the race to make a good pace for Postponed, but to inconvenience Highland Reel as well. The Galileo colt is another who seems as if his best trip is a mile and a half on fast ground and apart from his easy win in the Secretariat Stakes (not much of note in behind), he’s not been as successful at this mile and a quarter. He’s also comfortably held by Postponed on Sheema Classic form, to the tune of over four lengths in fact, so he’ll have to have improved plenty to beat him.


The Grey Gatsby likes it at York, but looks as if his best days could well be behind him now, a view taken by Jamie Spencer as he’s abandoned Kevin Ryan’s five-year-old to ride Arab Spring, so instead, it could be a better idea to look to those more unexposed runners as challengers to Postponed.


There are two three-year-olds engaged here and on the running of the King George, Wings Of Desire couldn’t get to Highland Reel, so he’ll have had to have come on loads for that run to challenge Postponed, however that’s not impossible and he could actually be one who is better at this trip than the mile and a half, especially given it’s still his first season racing. He’ll certainly get a good tow into the race thanks to the probable fast pace on here and should be staying on well at the end, it’s just a matter of how far back he has to come from. It wouldn’t surprise me if Frankie Dettori stalks Postponed throughout and tries to pick up any pieces from there – this horse could run a nice race at a price given he’s already won the Dante at this track on quick ground and he’s receiving plenty of weight from the older contingent.


Eclipse winner, Hawkbill, looks very much at home over ten furlongs, living with the speed of The Gurkha in that race before staying on best of the two to win his first Group 1 and he could still be an improving sort to keep on the right side of, especially given that he receives the three-year-old’s allowance in a race that the classic generation have won four times in the last nine years, including the last twice. However, this is a horse that has never encountered genuinely quick ground before and given the talk from connections that he will get a mile and a half, it could be that he will find this too sharp a test, especially without something akin to Sandown’s hill to storm up at the end. He’ll enjoy the fast pace though and won’t be stopping at the line, so can’t be ruled out, even though, again, he’ll have to improve lots to challenge Postponed if he’s on top form.


Mutakayyef is interesting at around the 14/1 mark – a gelding operation seems to have been the making of him, winning here in the Listed Ganton Stakes before storming home in the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot, comfortably beating subsequent Group 2 Lennox Stakes winner Dutch Connection. He looks more than ready for the step up to this level and if the trip doesn’t inconvenience after finding his form at a mile, the Sea The Stars gelding could surprise a few.


Another who could surprise is Aidan O’Brien’s second string, Sir Isaac Newton, who despite finishing a well-held fourth in the King George, returns to a trip that suits better and in a race with plenty of pace to help him settle. He pulled far too hard at Ascot last time and the probable fast pace here could help him to get into a good rhythm early on – he’s dangerous, especially given how he won his two starts before that, in a fashion suggesting there was plenty more in the tank and a price of 33/1 could be much too big, even though he’s got plenty to find.




My Advice




POSTPONED – 2pts win @ 13/8 (Boylesports)





4.20 York – Fine Equinity Stakes (Handicap)




This 2m handicap looks a typically competitive one for the venue and cases can be made for at least six or seven of the field.


At this stage, the likely market leader looks to be Hughie Morrison’s Sweet Selection who has won her last three starts, most recently getting the better of subsequent winner Sea Of Heaven. The filly won off 65 in November at Chelmsford but now finds herself running off a career high mark of 87. She looked to still have plenty in the tank at Newbury last time which suggests a 5lb rise might not be enough to stop her from going in again. PJ McDonald has won on her before and she looks to have a leading chance.


Montaly finished behind Sweet Selection at Newbury and gets a 6lb pull in the weights with that rival. Andrew Balding’s five-year-old travelled strongly into the race before finding very little off the bridle in the final furlong and he may just have found the 2m2f trip at the edge of his stamina reserves. The drop back to 2m should be ideal for him and he has to come into the mix.


Another who travelled well before fading last time was Poyle Thomas who finished fourth in the Goodwood Stakes three weeks ago. Since returning from a year off the track, Ralph Beckett’s seven-year-old has not been far away, also finishing a close second in the Northumberland Plate consolation race at Newcastle. The drop back to two miles should be ideal for him but he is drawn out in 12 which could make life difficult for jockey William Buick.


David Simcock’s The Cashel Man always seems to pop up in these races and he was second over course and distance at the Dante meeting in May. George Buckell’s 5lb claim is utilised once again this afternoon and whilst he was disappointing at Goodwood last time, it would be no surprise to see him bounce back here.


One of the big eye-catchers at Goodwood was Alan King’s Oceane who appeared to be motoring at the end of the 2m5f Goodwood Stakes. Unfortunately for jockey Fergus Sweeney, he found himself behind a wall of horses and although he finally managed to get out, he had too much to do. The handicapper has only put him up 1lb for that effort and if he gets a clearer run here, it is hard to see him being too far away.


At the head of the weights we have Iain Jardine’s Nakeeta who started his season by finishing a close second in the Chester Cup. He was disappointing in the Northumberland Plate next time but has bounced back to form on his last two starts, finishing fourth over course and distance before finishing a close second to Sea Of Heaven at Ascot. His trainer has booked promising 7lb claimer Clifford Lee to take the ride who looks pretty good value for his claim at the moment.


Also up towards the top of the weights is Tim Easterby’s My Reward who won a valuable 2m handicap at Haydock earlier in the season. Despite finishing seventh at Goodwood last time, he didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs and I think a return to 2m and a more conventional track should show him in a better light.


There are also a number of Irish raiders to throw into the mix including Willie Mullins’ Renneti who was last seen finishing fourth in a similar race at Galway. He is not the easiest of rides but Pat Smullen is as good as any in the weighing room and any runner from the Mullins yard needs to be respected.


Charles O’Brien’s Botany Bay is another interesting contender having finished fourth in the Melrose here last season. He was only beaten three-quarters of a length on the day and is only 7lb higher than that mark here. He needs quick ground to be at his most effective which he should get here and the booking of Frankie Dettori certainly catches the eye.


However, the one that interests me most is ESHTIAAL who won over course and distance last July. This useful dual-purpose performer has since won twice over hurdles as well as once on the all-weather at Dundalk and although he was well-beaten in the Ascot Stakes in June, the ground would have been far too soft for him on that occasion. The ground promises to be quicker here and he looks to be in the form of his life at present. He may just have a couple of pounds more to find on his flat mark and with Graham Gibbons once again getting back aboard, I am happy to side with him at around the 12/1 mark.




My Advice




ESHTIAAL – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes)





4.55 York – Betway Stakes (Nursery Handicap)




A typically competitive-looking contest for this meeting, this Nursery has plenty of smart, speedy types to take a look through, starting with Richard Hannon’s top-weight, Mutawatheb. This colt has shown a very high level of ability so far in his short career, finishing a close second to the useful Boynton on his racecourse debut, then defeating subsequent Prix Robert Papin winner Tis Marvellous in a Novice event at Newbury. He then went on to finish a close fourth place in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes (Winkfield Stakes) at Ascot over seven furlongs against horses that look like they want a mile, so this drop back to six furlongs shouldn’t be too much of a problem, even though seven furlongs could be his optimum in time. The bigger worry will be the ground – he was outpaced before staying on at Ascot on good to firm and it’s likely to be as quick, if not quicker at York, so off top weight, he might just find things happening too fast, even though I think he’s a very nice horse.


The northern stables have done pretty well in this contest over the past ten years and David Barron’s Wick Powell could make a decent bid to further improve that record. He’s a son of Sakhee’s Secret with plenty of scope and hasn’t been beaten further than a quarter of a length in his three runs so far, proving a very consistent and tough two-year-old so far. However, a mark of 85 seems a little harsh on what he’s achieved in those three runs and he might just find a couple better weighted, especially as he’s drawn on what is traditionally the wrong side in stall 5.


Richard Fahey has won this twice in the last four years and he has three in the race this year, once-raced winner The Wagon Wheel, who could be anything and is hard to assess, Navarone who drops back to six furlongs for the first time and, for me, the more interesting Spin Doctor. Jamie Spencer is booked to ride this Cheveley Park-owned filly and she’ll have to bounce back after a poor showing at Royal Ascot in the Albany Stakes where she really didn’t seem to handle the soft ground at all. However, her two runs before that were full of promise, showing speed and ability over five furlongs on fast ground. The return to this surface should suit, we haven’t seen the best of her yet and she could run very well, even though she’s also drawn towards the wrong side (stall 7) – that’s something Spencer can remedy if holding the filly up as he likes to do.


Another who looks to hold claims despite having not the best draw (4) is Parys Mountain, last seen finishing fifth to Best Solution in a Goodwood maiden. He’s fitted with a hood for the first time and connections will be hoping that it can help him kerb his enthusiasm in the early part of races. The Dark Angel colt finished second to the very useful Thunder Snow on his racecourse debut at Leicester and that gives him a great chance here off a fairly low mark of 81. This is a horse that looks in need of a little further though and he could find a couple of others a bit too quick for him over York’s six furlongs.
Nautical Haven represents the Kevin Ryan yard and his defeat of the re-opposing Storm Cry over C&D in July looks like really good form now, especially given that rival bolted up by six lengths over six furlongs at Ripon two weeks ago, admittedly in a weak race. Ryan’s colt will have to give the filly 5lbs once again, but he had her held by three-quarters of a length that day and has a plum draw in 14 here, so Storm Cry (who probably needs to step up in distance now judging by pedigree) might find herself chasing Nautical Heaven home once again.


However, the one that I want to be on here is the William Haggas-trained NAAFER, who has some nice form to her name, including a win over five and a half furlongs here at York. She finished a close second to the Hannon pair of Grizzel and Lexington Sky on her first two starts and then easily accounted for a Class 3 field in a maiden at this venue in July before going on to a competitive Nursery at Glorious Goodwood. Despite being held up and enduring something of a nightmare trip under Martin Harley that day, the Oasis Dream filly travelled very strongly and stayed on into a three and a half-length ninth, looking as if she’d come on again and that a mark of 84 was more than workable. The presence of Paul Hanagan in the saddle is a big pointer for me as Mutawatheb would certainly have the best form in the race, so it tells you that there should be plenty more to come from this speedy filly, related to the likes of the smart Ertijaal, the useful Muzdawaj and Listed-placed Odooj. She’s drawn well in 15, there’s plenty of pace around her to drag her into the race, she’ll enjoy this fast ground and her stables been in cracking form recently, so everything seems set fair for a big showing.




My Advice




NAAFER – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (SkyBet)