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    DF VIP Member ganjaman2's Avatar
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    Default CELEBRATION MILE TRENDS 2016

    The Group 2 Doom Bar Celebration Mile takes place on the 27th August and is the highlight at Goodwood on Saturday. Run over a mile for 3yos and upwards, it has been won by some top class horses in the past including Raven’s Pass in 2008, who went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    3yo: 6-2-16
    4yo: 0-4-17
    5yo: 2-3-13
    6yo+: 2-3-18
    3yos have taken 6 of the last 8 renewals (& weren’t represented in 2013). 4 of the ran in a 2000 Guineas.

    Gender
    Fillies and mares (1-1-6) receive a 3lb allowance and 3 of the 8 to run in the race since 2004, have been successful, though last 3 female winners were trained by Michael Stoute with Chic accounting for 2 of the wins.

    Weight
    horses carrying a group 1 penalty (6lbs): 3 (0-0-1)
    horses carrying a group 2 penalty (3lbs): 65323 (0-2-5)
    Since 2000, all 12 runners to carry a penalty have been beaten.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season
    8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time (2 exceptions were unplaced in a group 1 or 2)
    6 of 6 winners aged 3 had posted an RPR of 111+ earlier that season
    10 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 1M
    8 of 10 winner had won a group 2 or 3 (2 exceptions were listed winners)
    0 of 10 winners had won a group 1
    9 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a group 1 (exception yet to run in a group 1)
    5 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in a group 1 as 2yos

    Other Races
    Highest placed finisher from St James' Palace Stakes: 111 (3-0-3)
    Highest placed finisher from 2000 Guineas: 31115 (3-0-5)
    Highest placed finisher from Hungerford Stakes: 1363 (1-0-4)
    Sovereign Stakes winner (Zonderland): 5131 (2-1-4)
    Midsummer Stakes winner (Gabrial): 21 (1-1-2)
    Thoroughbred Stakes winner (Thikriyaat): 25 (0-1-2)
    King Charles II Stakes winner (Thikriyaat): 3 (0-0-1)
    Bet365 Mile winner (Toormore): 6 (0-0-1)
    Spring Trophy Stakes winner (So Beloved): 43 (0-0-2)
    3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 422
    3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the St James Palace Stakes, finishing 226
    3 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in previous Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 352
    2 of 6 winners ran in previous year's Winkfield Stakes, finishing 11
    2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in Irish 2000 Guineas, finishing 82
    2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in the Craven, finishing 21
    2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in Spring Cup, finishing 19
    2 of 6 winners aged 3 ran in Lingfield International Stakes, finishing 11
    3 of 10 winners ran in Sovereign Stakes last time, finishing 231
    2 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes last time, finishing 02
    2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Jean Prat, finishing 24
    2 of 10 winners ran in Hungerford Stakes, finishing 34

    Trainers
    Michael Stoute (1-1-4) trained female winners in this in 2004, 2005 & 2007.
    Richard Hannon yard (1-1-7) & Clive Cox (1-0-1) have accounted for winners in 2011 & 2015.
    Richard Fahey (0-1-1) & David Simcock (0-1-2) have both saddled a placed finisher in past 3 years.

    Price
    9 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
    The longest priced winner in the past 10 years was a 20/1 shot in 2012, the other 9 were priced 7/1 or shorter.
    Favourites (4-2-10) have 4 of the last 10, which isn’t a great record when you consider that 8 of the 10 favourites were sent off 11/8 or shorter. Backing the favourites would have resulted in a level stakes loss of 2.66.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - 3yo that posted an RPR of 111+ in 2016
    - Fillies/mares aged 4+ do well
    - Carrying no penalty
    - Finished in the first 4 last time out
    - Won over 7F or 1M
    - Previously won a group 2 or 3 (or multiple listed races)
    - Finished in first 5 in a group 1
    - Ran in the Sussex, Hungerford or Sovereign Stakes last time
    - 3yo that finished in first 4 in 2000 Guineas, St James Palace Stakes and/or 2015 Dewhurst
    - Trained by Michael Stoute or Clive Cox

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (23rd August 2016)  


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