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    Default IRISH CAMBRIDGESHIRE HANDICAP TRENDS 2016

    The Tote Irish Cambridgeshire takes place at the Curragh on Sunday, 28th August. Run over a mile for horses aged 3 or older, there’s a €60,000 prize for the winner, which looks sure to entice some British challengers across the Irish Sea, however there has been no foreign-trained winner of this in the past 30 years.

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

    Age
    3yo: 1-8-56
    4yo: 2-8-43
    5yo: 3-5-53
    6yo: 3-5-33
    7yo+: 1-4-36
    No very strong trends on the ages of the winners, though older horses have held a slight edge:
    horses aged 3 or 4: 3-16-99
    horses aged 5+: 7-14-122

    Weight
    horses carrying 8-10 or more: 6-18-119
    horses carrying 8-9 or less: 4-12-102
    Of the 4 horses that have won carrying 9-0 or more, one had won a listed race and the other 3 were successful in races worth 50K+
    horse racing from out of the handicap: 0-3-25
    Top weight: 410510637405 (2-3-12) – both top weights to win this posted a career higher RPR of 105+ when winning their previous outing.

    Official Ratings
    horses rated 100 or higher: 2-6-36
    horses rated 90 to 99: 3-13-90
    horses rated 89 or less: 5-11-95
    horses officially rated 84 to 95 have won 8 of last 9 runnings.

    Recent/Past Form
    6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (4 exceptions unplaced in handicap worth 19K+)
    8 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR in past 3 runs
    9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 87 or higher in last 3 runs (exception posted career high RPR of 77 last time)
    8 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that season (2 exceptions won on only previous start)
    10 of 10 winners ran in past 45 days
    7 of 10 winners had won at the Curragh (6 have won over the CD)
    10 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 1M
    8 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicaps
    6 of 10 winners contested a 7F to 1M 1/2F handicap at that season's Galway Festival
    10 of 10 winners had won a race in a field of 12+ (last 7 had won a race with 14+ runners)

    Other Races
    Paddy Power Premier Handicap winner (Breathe Easy): 50224 (0-3-5)
    Equisoft 25th Anniversary H'cap winner (Sea Wolf): 70 (0-0-2)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF Ahonoora Handicap winner (Dream Walker): 60 (0-0-2)
    O'Brien's Wines Handicap winner (Castle Guest): 0069 (0-0-4)
    3 of 10 winners ran in the Topaz Mile H'cap, finishing 101
    3 of 10 winners ran in Irish Stallion Farms EBF Habitat Handicap, finishing 376
    3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Irish Cambridgeshire, finishing 500
    2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Nasrullah' Handicap, finishing 82
    2 of 10 winners ran in Alleged Stakes, finishing 65
    2 of 10 winners ran in Kilboy Estate Stakes, finishing 90
    2 of 10 winners ran in Irish Lincolnshire, finishing 00
    6 of 10 winners contested a handicap over 7F to 1M 1/2F at that season's Galway Festival

    Trainers
    Mick Halford (2-3-9) trained the winner in 2006 & 2010 & saddled runner-up in 2013 & 2015 and the 3rd in 2014.
    Gavin Cromwell (1-0-1), Patrick Prendergast (1-0-6), David Wachman (1-0-6) & Aidan O’Brien (1-0-6) have all trained the winner in past 10 years.
    Kevin Prendergast (0-2-12) has saddled the winner in 1997, 2001 & 2005 and also the runner-up in 2014.
    Ger Lyons (0-2-12) & Jim Bolger (0-2-14) have both filled a couple of places since 2006.
    Willie McCreery (0-1-2), Johnny Murtagh (0-1-2), Eddie Lynam (0-1-6) & Dermot Weld (0-1-14) have all won this since 2006.
    British-trained runners (0-3-14) have gained no wins and 3 places from 14 runners. 8 of those 14 runners were sent off 10/1 or shorter, including 3 favourites.

    Jockey
    Claimers: 4-8-71
    Non-claimers: 6-22-150
    In the past 10 years, a claiming jockey has ridden either the winner (4 times) or the runner-up (5 times).

    Draw
    horses drawn 1 to 8: 3-7-80
    horses drawn 9 to 16: 5-12-80
    horses drawn 17 or higher: 2-10-61
    No very strong trends on draw.

    Racing Tactics
    5 of 10 winners led or raced prominently
    2 of 10 winners raced in mid-division
    3 of 10 winners race in rear (all 3 did so on good or firmer)
    There have been 4 runnings on soft or heavy in last 10 years, 3 of those 4 were won by horses racing prominently, the other was one by a horse held up in mid division.

    Price
    Recent trend has been towards long-priced winners, with 5 of last 8 winners going off at odds of between 16/1 & 25/1, with only one single-figured priced winner in last 8 renewals.
    Favourites (0-5-12) have failed to win any of the last 10 runnings. Silverware in 2000 was last winning market leader.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    - Aged 5 or 6
    - Officially rated 84 to 95
    - Run at least 3 times in 2016 (or won on only start)
    - Finished in first 3 last time (or unplaced in a handicap worth 19K+)
    - Posted an RPR of 89+ in last 3 runs
    - Ran in past 45 days
    - Won over 7F or 1M
    - Won a race with 14 or more runners
    - Won no more than twice in handicap company
    - Course winner (ideally over this CD)
    - Ran in a handicap at 2016 Galway Festival over 7F to 1M 1/2F
    - Trained by Mick Halford
    - Ridden by a claimer

    Thanks to ganjaman2

    Bald Bouncer (24th August 2016)  


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