ST LEGER TRENDS 2016

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The Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes, which takes place at Doncaster on Saturday 10th September, is the final Classic of the season. In recent years the two races that have supplied the majority of the winners have been the Great Voltigeur and the Gordon Stakes, 11 of 16 winners since 2000 ran in one or the other on their previous start, however the Epsom Derby has also provided key clues.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos.

Gender
Fillies (1-3-8) have gained 1win and 3 places from 8 runners since 2006. (2 of 3 placed finishers were group 1 winners & the other was an unbeaten group winner).
From just 23 representatives over the last 30 runnings, fillies have a 60.8% strike rate of hitting the frame having recorded four wins (Sun Princess, Oh So Sharp, User Friendly & Simple Verse), seven seconds (Diminuendo, Hellenic, Quiff, High And Low (2nd G1), Ramruma, Unsung Heroine (G3, 2nd g2) & Talent) and three thirds (Untold, Roseate Tern & Look Here), which is a very healthy return.
Since 1999, record of group 1 winning fillies: 232462 (0-4-6)

Breeding
8 of 10 winners were by a sire with stamina index of 10.6F to 11.8F (2 exceptions by Kingmambo & Mastercraftsman with stamina indexes of 9.9F to 10.0F but both had damsires with stamina index of 11.3F+)
7 of 10 winners were sired by a horse that finished in first 2 in the Irish Derby or King George (2 exceptions sired by a winner of a major European 2000 Guineas)
5 of 10 winners were by a son of Sadler’s Wells or out of a Sadler’s Wells mare
Progeny of Galileo: 0032187209272443530832 (1-8-22)
Progeny of Mastercraftsman: 1 (1-0-1)
Progeny of Duke OF Marmalade: 1 (1-0-1)
Despite representing over 20% of the total runners, progeny of Galileo have managed just 1 win from 22 runners.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season
6 of 10 winners won last time (3 exceptions finished in first 3 in Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes & other was 4th in Eclipse)
9 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR of 111+ on last 2 starts (exception was a mare who posted RPR of 108 last time)
9 of 10 winners won their maiden over 1M or further (exception won maiden over 7F)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F to 1M 4F (exception was 2nd in Derby)
9 of 10 winners' last 2 starts added up to a combined distance of 3 miles or longer (exception's last 2 runs added to 2M 6F)
8 of 10 winner had won a group race (2 exceptions were 2nd in a group race)

Royal Ascot
Highest placed finisher from King Edward VII Stakes: 311418880 (3-1-9)
Queen's Vase winner (Sword Fighter): 217 (1-1-3)
King Edward VII Stakes winner (Across The Stars): 48 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in King Edward VII, finishing 3222
2 of 10 winners ran in Queen's Vase, finishing 31

Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Epsom Derby: 1162612414 (4-2-10)
Highest placed finisher from Gordon Stakes: 10181035 (3-1-8)
Voltigeur top finisher: 3103636534 (1-4-10)
Bahrain Trophy winner (Housesofparliament): 2317 (1-2-4)
Great Voltigeur winner (Idaho): 136364 (1-2-6)
Cocked Hat Stakes winner (Algometer): 96134 (1-1-5)
Curragh Cup winner (Sword Fighter): 2 (0-1-1)
Lingfield Derby Trial winner (Humphrey Bogart): 053 (0-1-3)
Dante Stakes winner (Wings Of Desire): 4 (0-0-1)
Chester Vase winner (US Army Ranger): 80 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Derby, finishing 7482
4 of 10 winners ran in Gordon Stakes, finishing 1132
3 of 10 winners ran in Great Voltigeur last time, finishing 123
2 of 10 winners ran in Queen's Vase, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in Autumn Stakes, finishing 81
Last 2 O'Brien-trained winners ran in Gallinule Stakes, finishing 21

Trainers
John Gosden (3-2-12) has won 3 of the last 10 runnings.
Aidan O’Brien (1-5-22) has trained the winner in 2003, 2005 & 2013. His first string has a record of 1-4-10 since 2006. His last 2 winners both ran in Gallinule Stakes.
Michael Stoute (1-2-9) has gained 1 win and 2 places in last 10 years.
Saeed Bin Suroor (1-1-4) trained the winner 2004 & 2009.
Roger Varian (1-0-1) won this in 2014.

Price
No strong trends on prices, 6 of the first 7 runnings since the turn of the century were won by the favourite, however the 6 of last 8 winners have gone off 8/1, 8/1, 12/1, 14/1, 15/2 & 25/1.
Favourites (3-6-11) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 0.13.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- By a sire with stamina index of 10.6F to 11.8F
- Sire finished in first 2 in King George or Irish Derby or won a major European 2000 Guineas
- Won their maiden over 1M or further
- Run 3 to 6 times in 2016
- Finished in first 3 last time out (ideally won)
- Posted an RPR of 111 or higher in last 2 runs
- Won a group race over 1M 2F to 1M 4F
- Ran in the Epsom Derby
- Finished in first 3 in Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes last time
- Finished in first 4 in King Edward VII, Gallinule and/or Queen’s Vase
- Trained by John Gosden