HAYDOCK SPRINT CUP TRENDS 2016

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The Sprint Cup takes place at Haydock on Saturday 3rd September. It’s a six-furlong group 1 open to horses aged 3 and above. Good recent form in group 1 sprint company has proven key to finding the winner of this in recent renewals.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 4-4-37

4yo: 1-10-46

5yo: 4-2-23

6yo+: 1-4-35

All 5 winners aged 5+ ran in the King’s Stand or Diamond Jubilee earlier that year.

Only 2 horses aged older than 5 have managed to win this in past 30 years.



Breeding

8 of 10 winners were sired by group 1 winners over 1M or shorter

8 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 7.8F to 9.3F



Gender

Fillies/mares (1-2-10) have a fair record in this group 1, gaining 2 wins and 3 places from 18 runners since 2004 (10.5% of total runner in last 12 years).



Recent/Past Form

6 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (3 exceptions finished in top 7 in group 1)

10 of 10 winners had run at least twice that season

8 of 10 winners had won a sprint earlier that year (2 exceptions placed in group 1 July Cup that year)

7 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 116+ in last 2 starts (3 exceptions posted RPR of 108+ last time)

7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 3 in a group 1 in past 2 starts (one exception was unbeaten & having first try in group 1)

8 of 10 winner had won a listed race or higher (1 exception was unbeaten & having first try in class 1 race)

8 of 10 winners had won over 6F or 7F (2 exceptions finished 1st & 6th in Nunthorpe on previous start)



Other Races

Previous season's winner (Twilight Son): 624 (0-1-3)

Charity Sprint winner (Mr Lupton): 1 (1-0-1)

Hackwood Stakes winner (The Tin Man): 336032 (0-4-6)

Prix Maurice De Gheest winner (Signs Of Blessing): 226 (0-2-3)

Leisure Stakes winner (The Tin Man): 8002 (0-1-4)

Duke Of York Stakes winner (Magical Memory): 002000 (0-1-6)

Abernant Stakes winner (Magical Memory): 64 (0-0-2)

Coral Charge winner (Brando): 600 (0-0-3)

Previous season's Criterium De Maisons-Laffitte winner (Donjuan Triumphant): 700 (0-0-3)

Diamond Jubilee winner (Twilight Son): 0569 (0-0-4)

3 of 10 winners ran in Prix Maurice De Gheest, finishing 273

3 of 10 winners ran in the Nunthorpe last time, finishing 146

3 of 10 winners ran in July Cup, finishing 313

4 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in the Diamond Jubilee, finishing 4954

3 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in the Duke Of York Stakes, finishing 233

2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 18

2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in the King's Stand, finishing 02

2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in previous year's British Champion Sprint, finishing 10



Trainers

Henry Candy (2-1-6) trained the winners in 2010 & 2015.

Tom Hogan (1-2-4) has saddled Gordon Lord Byron to finish 2nd-1st-2nd-10th in last 4 runnings.

James Fanshawe (1-0-2) & David O’Meara (1-0-3) trained the winners in 2012 & 2014 respectively.

Charlie Hills (0-2-2) trained the 2nd & 3rd in 2015.

Since 2000, the 6 French-trained runners have produced 2 winners and 1 second, 2 of 3 unplaced runners were priced higher than 16/1.



Draw (excluding 2008 running at Doncaster)

horses drawn 1 to 5: 4-5-45

horses drawn 6 to 10: 3-6-45

horses drawn 11 or higher: 2-7-36

Both winners drawn 10 or higher did so on softer than good and both winners on firm ground came from stalls 3 or below.



Price

6 of 10 winners were priced between 9/1 and 14/1

No very strong trend on prices, though 14/1 has been long priced winner since 2006.

Favourites (3-1-10) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 3.25.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Sired by a group 1 winner over 5F to 1M

- Sired with a stamina index of 7.8F to 9.3F

- Run at least twice in 2016

- Achieved an RPR of 116+ in last 2 starts

- Won a class 1 sprint in 2016

- Finished in first 3 in a group 1 in past 2 starts

- Won over 6F or 7F

- Finished in first 6 in Diamond Jubilee, King’s Stand and/or Nunthorpe

- Finished in first 3 in July Cup, Duke Of York and/or Prix Maurice Du Gheest

- Trained by Henry Candy or in France