The Ayr Gold Cup, which takes place on the Saturday 17th September, is the most valuable sprint handicap run in Europe. Run over 6 furlongs, 11 of the 16 winners since 2000 have been provided by Kevin Ryan, Richard Fahey and Dandy Nicholls. horses that don’t make the cut for this run in the Silver Cup earlier on Saturday and the Bronze Cup on Friday, both races can often provide clues as to the best place to be drawn.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

3yo: 1-4-22

4yo: 3-8-73

5yo: 3-11-77

6yo+: 3-4-42

7yo+: 0-3-46

horses aged between 4 and 6 have won 9 of last 10, though that age group has represented around 74% of the total runners.

horses aged 7 or older have not won the race since 1993 and only 3 of their 46 representatives in the last 10 years have made the frame.



Weights

horses carrying 9-6 or over: 2-6-40

horses carrying 9-0 to 9-5: 6-17-125

horses carrying 8-6 to 8-13: 2-8-89

horses carrying 8-5 or less: 0-0-6

Last 10 winners were all allotted 9-0 or more (before claim). 6 of last 7 winners carried 8-13 to 9-4.

horses carrying a penalty: 1-5-25

Top weight: 0920037003380 (0-4-13)



Official Ratings

horses rated 101 or higher: 5-19-120

horses rated 97 to 100: 5-8-111

horses rated 96 or less: 0-2-29

In recent years the trend has been towards higher rated horses. 9 of last 10 winners were rated between 97 and 105.

In the past 4 runnings, 15 of 16 horses to make the frame were rated 100 or higher.



Recent/Past Form

10 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out

9 of 10 winners had run in past 35 days

9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 101+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts

7 of 10 winners (last 7) posted an RPR of 100+ last time

10 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season

9 of 10 winners had gained no more than 1 handicap win that season (exception was an unbeaten 3yo)

7 of 10 winners had won over at 6 furlongs (3 exceptions won over 7F)

10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher

6 of 10 winners had run in a listed or group race

10 of 10 winners had won a race with 13+ runners in it



Other Races

Great St Wilfrid winner (Nameitwhatyoulike): 20051 (1-1-5)

Scottish Stewards Cup winner (Orion's Bow): 32 (0-2-2)

bet365.com Conditions Stakes winner (Glen Moss): 4002 (0-2-4)

Goodwood Revival Stakes winner (Certificate): 27 (0-1-2)

Skybet Dash winner (Kimberella): 03000 (0-1-5)

Earl Grosvenor Handicap winner (Hillbilly Boy): 00 (0-0-2)

SkyBet Royal Windsor Sprint Series Handicap winner (Growl): 000 (0-0-3)

Riu Palace Meloneras Handicap winner (Perfect Pasture): 0805 (0-0-4)

Stewards Sprint winner (Hoof It): 0809 (0-0-4)

5 of 10 winners ran in the Great St Wilfrid, finishing 04241

4 of 10 winners ran in Buckingham Palace, finishing 1801

4 of 10 winners (3 of last 4) ran in Bunbury Cup, finishing 3367

2 of 10 winners ran in the Stewards Cup, finishing 00

2 of 10 winners ran in Silver Salver Stakes Handicap, finishing 83

2 of 10 winners ran in the Wokingham Handicap, finishing 00

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in Victoria Cup, finishing 00

2 of 10 winners (2 of last 3) ran in ApolloBet Daily Refunds Handicap, finishing 42

2 of 10 winners ran in International Stakes, finishing 60



Trainers

Kevin Ryan (3-3-32) have won this 3 times in past 10 years, including 2 of the last 5 winners, both of whom had placed in Great St Wilfrid handicap on their previous start.

Richard Fahey (2-4-33) saddled the winner in 2006 & 2015.

Dandy Nicholls (2-3-23) has won 6 of the last 16 runnings of this race.

David O’Meara (1-1-8) trained Louis The Pious to finish 1st & 2nd in 20103 & 2014.

Andrew Balding (1-0-4) & Clive Cox (1-0-8) have also trained the winner once since 2006.

Milton Bradley (0-1-2) saddled the runner-up in 2001, 2002 and 2012.

Irish-trained-runners (0-2-9) have gained 2 places from 9 runners.



Draw

horses drawn 1 to 9: 3-13-90

horses drawn 10 to 18: 3-9-90

horses drawn 19 or higher: 4-8-80

The winners have come from all over the track. The best option is to view the races run over the sprint course on Thursday, Friday & Silver Cup earlier on the Saturday card to source clues about the draw, although the last 7 winners came from stalls 8 to 19.



Price

9 of 10 winners were priced between 10/1 and 20/1

Favourites (1-4-10) gained their first win this century with Don’t Touch in 2015 at 6/1.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 4 to 6

- Carrying 8-13 to 9-6

- Officially rated 100 to 105

- Has run at least 4 times this season

- Won no more than one handicap in 2016

- Ran in a class 3 or better in past 35 days

- Posted an RPR of 100+ last time

- Won at class 3 level or higher

- Previously contested a class 1 race

- Won over 6F or 7F

- Has won a race with 13+ runners

- Won or placed in the Great St Wilfrid, Buckingham Palace or ApolloBet Daily Refunds H’cap

- Finished in first 8 in Bunbury Cup, International Stakes and/or Silver Salver H’cap

- Ran in the Wokingham, Victoria Cup and/or Steward's Cup this season

- Trained by Dandy Nicholls, Richard Fahey, Kevin Ryan, David O’Meara or Milton Bradley

- Priced between 10/1 and 20/1