CAMBRIDGESHIRE HANDICAP TRENDS 2016

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The Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 24th September and as always will be a wide open affair with over 30 runners going to post. It makes up the first part of the Autumn Double with the Cesarewitch to follow in October.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 4-4-66
4yo: 2-12-123
5yo: 3-6-67
6yo+: 1-8-67
No very strong trends on age of winners, though 3yos have won 4 of last 10 from just over 20% of the total runners.
The last winner aged older than 6 was in 1993.

Weights
horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-3-31
horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-6-97
horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 6-13-137
horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 1-7-54
horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 0-1-4
8 of 10 winners carried between 8-7 and 9-3, though that weight band has represented slightly over 62.2% of total runners in past 10 runnings.
Top Weight: 00000000009500 (0-0-14)
horses carrying a penalty: 2-6-41

Official Ratings
horses rated 103 or higher: 1-3-55
horses rated 92 to 102: 7-21-209
horses rated 91 or lower: 2-6-59
8 of last 10 winners were officially rated 95 to 104

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run 4 to 8 times that year
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of past 12 months last time out
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 96+ last time
9 of 10 winners had won or placed at class 2 or higher (exception won class 3 and never run in higher)
9 of 10 winners had won a race that year (7 had won 2+ races that season)
7 of 10 winners had won a race worth 12K or more
7 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 handicap last time (2 exceptions ran in a class 3 & other ran in group 2)
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 1/2F to 1M 2F (2 exceptions had won over 1M)
9 of 10 winners had won a race with 13+ runners
6 of 6 winners aged 3 or 4 had run in 3 to 11 handicaps
4 of 4 winners aged 5 or 6 had run in 14 to 23 handicaps

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Third Time Lucky): 0000 (0-0-4)
Bet365 Handicap winner (Ode To Evening): 10 (1-0-2)
Investec Mile winner (Examiner): 00420 (0-2-5)
Ripon Rowels H'cap winner (Treasury Notes): 020 (0-1-3)
Coral Challenge winner (Secret Art): 002 (0-1-3)
Suffolk Stakes winner (Knight Owl): 003 (0-1-3)
Duke Of Lancaster's Old Yeomanry Handicap winner (Treasury Notes): 05040 (0-1-5)
John Smith's Cup winner (Educate): 0000 (0-0-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Spring Cup, finishing 007
2 of 10 winners ran in National Feed & Flour Production H'cap, finishing 45
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dubai Duty Free H'cap at Newbury, finishing 30
2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in Bet365 H'cap at Newmarket July meeting, finishing 14

Trainers
Marcus Tregoning (2-1-6) trained the winner in 2014 and also saddled the 1st & 3rd in 2012.
John Gosden (2-0-12) trained back to back runnings in 2007 & 2008.
Ismail Mohammed (1-0-3) trained Educate to win this in 2013, while Hughie Morrison (1-0-4) won it in 2009.
Richard Fahey (1-0-12) trained Third Time Lucky to win this last year and he is attempting to win it again.
Luca Cumani (0-2-9) has saddled a couple of placed finishers, while David Elsworth (0-1-4) and Stuart Williams (0-1-1) trained the 2nd & 3rd in 2015.

Draw
Drawn 1 to 10: 4-8-100
Drawn 11 to 20: 3-9-100
Drawn 21 or higher: 3-13-123
No strong trends on the draw of the winners.

Racing Style
6 of 10 winners were held up off the pace
All 4 winners that raced prominently did so on good or firmer.

Price
No strong trends on the prices. There have been a few big upsets with a 100/1 winner in 2004 and there have been winners at 25/1 & 40/1 in past 10 years.
Favourites (2-1-11) have won 2 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 5.00. 7 of the 8 beaten favourites were 3yos (only 1 winning 3yo favourite in last 10 years).

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 or younger
- Carrying 8-7 to 9-3
- Officially rated 95 to 104
- Has run 4 to 8 times in 2016
- Finished in the first 5 in a class 2 handicap last time
- Posted highest RPR of past 12 months (of 96+) on last start
- Won a race in 2016 (ideally won more than 1)
- Has won or placed at class 2 level or above
- Won over 1M 1/2F to 1M 2F
- Won a race with 13+ runners
- Ran in the Spring Cup and/or Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury
- Finished in first 5 in Zetland Gold Cup and/or National Feed & Flour Production H'cap
- 3yo that finished in first 4 in the Bet365 H'cap
- Trained by John Gosden or Marcus Tregoning
- Hold up horses favoured on softer
- horses that race prominently favoured on faster ground