PRIX DE L'ARC DE TRIOMPHE TRENDS 2016

[ganjaman2]

The Qatar Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe, one of the sporting highlights of the year, takes place at Longchamp on Sunday 2nd October. Generally considered as the most prestigious horse race run on the flat in Europe, it has been won by some true greats in the past 15 years including Montjeu, Sinndar, Dalakhani, Zarkava, Sea The Stars & Treve. Postponed will likely be sent off favourite for this year’s renewal, however there has only been one winner aged older than 4 since 1990.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 7-8-71
4yo: 3-7-55
5yo: 0-4-28
6yo+: 0-2-8
3yos (7-8-72) have a superior record to the older horses (combined 3-13-91).
3 of 6 horses aged 5+ to make the frame finished in first 2 in previous year’s Arc.
Marienbard has been the only winner aged older than 4 since 1990.

Pedigree
10 of 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 8.2F to 11.1F.
Progeny of Cape Cross: 3141 (2-1-4)
Progeny of Dansili: 1800822 (1-2-7)
Progeny of Galileo: 65930009000673009009 (0-2-20)
Progeny of Sea The Stars: 3 (0-1-1)
Progeny of Dubawi: 6053 (0-1-4)

Gender
Fillies & mares (5-5-38) have won 5 of the last 8 and filling first 3 home in 2011 and the 1st & 3rd in 2014.
3yos fillies (3-3-17) have a better record than those aged 4+ (2-2-21). 5 of 6 3yos fillies to make frame had won an Oaks in Europe (France, Ireland, England or Italy).
All three 3yo female winners, Treve, Danedream & Zarkava, were multiple group 1 winners that year. 2 of 3 ran in Prix Marcel Boussac at previous year’s Arc meeting and both French-trained 3yo filly winners had won their maiden over 1M at Longchamp in September of previous year.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time (2 were beaten in Prix Vermeille and other 5th in King George)
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last 3 starts (2 exceptions were 4yo fillies)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 119+ on last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners had run in the last 35 days
9 of 10 winners had won at least 40% of their races that season (exception won previous year's race)
9 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (7 had won more than one, exception was 3rd on only group 1 start)
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F
9 of 10 winners had won a race worth at least 170K
9 of 10 winners were having their first start in the race (exception won previous year's race)

Arc Trials
Prix Vermielle winner (Left Hand): 179914 (2-0-6)
Prix Niel winner (Makahiki): 1553400403 (1-2-10)
Prix Foy winner (Silverware): 8007229 (0-2-7)
4 of 5 winning fillies ran in Prix Vermeille last time, finishing 1314
Horses that ran in the Prix Foy: 842970000020507020009209200 (0-5-27)
Horses that ran in the Prix Niel: 1853538d74600000874053 (1-4-21)
Horses that ran in the Prix Vermeille: 10750320995110514 (4-1-16)

Other Races
Irish Champion Stakes winner (Almanzor): 11041 (3-0-5)
Epsom Derby winner (Harzand): 011771 (3-0-6)
Prix de Diane winner (La Cressioniere): 17210 (2-1-5)
Eclipse winner (Hawkbill): 1461 (2-0-4)
King George winner (Highland Reel): 41743 (1-1-5)
Prix Hocquart winner (Mekhtaal): 1 (1-0-1)
Previous year's Prix Marcel Boussac winner (Ballydoyle): 19 (1-0-2)
French 1000 Guineas winner (La Cressioniere): 10 (1-0-2)
Juddmonte International winner (Postponed): 716 (1-0-3)
Dante Stakes winner (Wings Of Desire): 001 (1-0-3)
Prix Du Jockey winner (Almanzor): 500033 (0-2-6)
Grand Prix de Saint Cloud winner (Silverware): 2207004 (0-2-7)
Hong Kong Cup winner (A Shin Hikari): 3 (0-1-1)
Epsom Oaks winner (Minding): 3 (0-1-1)
Grand Prix de Deauville winner (Savoir Vivre): 5863 (0-1-4)
Yorkshire Oaks winner (Seventh Heaven): 590 (0-0-3)
Chester Vase winner (US Army Ranger): 507 (0-0-3)
Tattersalls Gold Cup winner (Fascinating Rock): 47546 (0-0-5)
Irish Derby winner (Harzand): 56007 (0-0-5)
3 of 10 winners ran in the King George,finishing 153
3 of 10 winners ran in the Juddmonte International, finishing 211
3 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Stakes last time,finishing 111
3 of 5 winning 3yos colts ran in the Epsom Derby, finishing 111
2 of 5 winning 3yos colts ran in the Eclipse Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 5 winning 3yos colts ran in the Dante Stakes, finishing 21
2 of 3 female 3yo winners ran in Prix de Diane, finishing 11
2 of 3 female 3yo winners ran in Prix Marcel Boussac as 2yos, finishing 16
2 of 3 winners aged 4 ran in Prix Ganay, finishing 12
Trainers
French Trained horses: 5-10-80
British-trained horses: 2-5-28
Irish-trained horses: 2-1-29
German-trained horses: 1-1-7
Japanese-trained horses: 0-4-13
Other: 0-0-5
Andre Fabre (1-7-20) and Alain de Royer-Dupre (1-3-14) have both gained 2 wins and multiple places in the past 13 runnings.
John Gosden (1-1-7) won the race with Golden Horn in 2015.
Jonathan Pease (0-2-2) has gained 1 win and 2 places from his 3 runners in this since 2004.
Aidan O’Brien (1-1-23) has only won the race once from 23 runners in the last 10 years. His record with 3yos since 2000 is 0-1-23.
Michael Stoute (1-0-7) trained Workforce to win this in 2010.
Since 1994, record of Fabre 3yo colts that posted an RPR of 120+ in last 2 runs: 1121136833 (4-4-10)
Since 1994, record of Fabre 3yo colts that finished in first 2 last time: 1311240211363533 (5-7-16)

Price
7 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
Danedream at 20/1 in 2011, Solemia at 33/1 in 2012 & Treve at 11/1 in 2014 have been the 3 more surprising results in past 10 years, all 3 were female winners.
Favourites (2-6-10) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 5.71.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- 3yo who won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (or were unbeaten at 2)
- 3yo filly that won an Oaks or 3yo colt that won Prix Niel and/or Epsom Derby
- Sired by a horse with stamina index of 8.2F to 11.1F
- Won last time out in last 40 days
- Posted an RPR of 120+ in last 2 runs
- Won a group 1 race worth 170K+
- Won over 1M 4F
- Finished in first 3 in Prix Niel, Prix Vermeille, Prix Ganay, King George and/or Judmonte Int’l
- Won the Irish Champion Stakes, Epsom Derby, Prix de Diane or Grand Prix de Paris
- Trained by Andre Fabre, Jonathan Pease or Alain de Royer-Dupre