SUN CHARIOT STAKES TRENDS 2016

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The Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 1st October. Run over a mile for fillies and mares aged 3 or older, the race was upgraded to group 1 status in 2004 and French-trained runners have won 5 of the last 7 renewals (with Sahpresa winning 3 in a row between 2009 & 2011).

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 4-9-43
4yo: 3-5-23
5yo: 2-2-13
6yo+: 1-1-2
Sahpresa, Siyouma & Esoterique (all French-trained) have accounted for 5 of 6 wins for older horses.
The only 2 horses aged older than 4 to win this in past 50 years have been Sahpresa, who won 3 consecutive renewals of this aged 4, 5 & 6, and Esoterique, who was 4th the previous year.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had won a race that season
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 107+ last time
9 of 10 winners had run 4 to 7 times that season
8 of 10 winners had won a group race (exceptions had finished 3rd & 4th group 1 that season)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a group 1
6 of 6 winners aged 4+ had finished in first 4 in a group 1 (4 had won a group 1)
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F (exception was placed in 1M group 1 on only previous start over shorter than 1M 2F)

Other races
Falmouth Stakes winner (Alice Springs): 474841 (1-0-6)
Since 2002, record of 2nd & 3rd from Falmouth: 113453631211 (5-4-12)
Princess Elizabeth Stakes winner (Epsom Icon): 3 (0-1-1)
Prix de Sandringham winner (Volta): 33 (0-1-2)
Matron Stakes winner (Alice Springs): 5355 (0-1-4)
Atalanta Stakes winner (Persuasive): 4823 (0-1-4)
Prix de Volterra winner (Volta): 3 (0-0-1)
Sandringham Handicap winner (Persuasive): 56 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Falmouth, finishing 2321
4 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in previous year's Sun Chariot, finishing 1124
3 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Prix Rothschild, finishing 423
2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, finishing 81
2 of 6 winners aged 4+ ran in Prix Jacque Le Marois, finishing 31
2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Coronation Stakes, finishing 71
2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the English 1000 Guineas, finishing 61
2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in Nell Gwyn, finishing 22
2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Nassau Stakes, finishing 15
2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Oak Tree Stakes, finishing 55

Trainers
British-trained runners: 5-15-62
French-trained runners: 4-2-9
Irish-trained runners: 1-0-11
French trained runners have won 5 of last 7 and were not represented in 2013.
Mick Channon (1-1-5) trained Majestic Roi to win this in 2007, while Aidan O’Brien (1-0-4) gained his only success in this with Halfway To Heaven in 2008.
John Gosden (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners make the places.
Martin Meade (0-1-1) saddled Irish Rookie to be 3rd in 2015.
Saeed Bin Suroor won this in 2003 but hasn’t had a runner in last 10 years.

Price
No strong trends on the prices. 5 of 10 winners have gone off between 8/1 & 16/1 while the other 5 were all sent off shorter than 5/1.
Favourites (4-3-13) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level £1 stakes loss of £1.12.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Finished in first 4 last time & posted an RPR of 107+
- Has run in the last 45 days
- Run 4 to 7 times in 2016 (and won at least once)
- Has won a group race
- Finished in first 4 in a group 1
- Won over 7F or 8F
- Finished in first 3 in Falmouth Stakes
- 3yo that finished in first 3 in Coronation, Oak Tree, Nell Gwyn, Irish or English 1000 Guineas or
- 4yo that finished in first 4 in Duke Of Cambridge, Prix Rothschild and/or 2015 Sun Chariot
- Trained in France