The Qatar Prix Chaudenay is a group 2 for 3yos run over 1M 7F, which takes place at Chantilly on the Saturday of the Arc meeting on 1st October. It’s a race that has been dominated by the home team, with the Prix de Lutece & Prix Michel Houyvet usually providing valuable clues.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 3yos.

Breeding
French-bred: 4-7-25
Irish-bred: 4-4-27
GB-bred: 2-3-21
German-bred: 0-2-5
USA-bred: 0-0-1
8 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 10.2F+

Gender
Fillies (1-5-16) have gained 3 wins & 6 places from 22 runners since 2003 (around 24% of total runners).
Alain De Royer-Dupre’s last 6 female runners in this have produced 2 wins, 1 second, 1 third, 1 fourth and 1 ninth.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time out
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 103+ last time
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 7 times that year (winning at least once)
9 of 10 winners had won or placed at Longchamp (1 exception was having first course start)
9 of 10 winners gained first win over 1M 2F+
8 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F+ (2 exceptions had won over 1M 2F)
7 of 10 winners had won a listed or group 3 race (3 exceptions placed in group company)
10 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a group 2 or 3
0 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2
Only 3 of 10 winners had previously run in group 1 (all unplaced)

Other Races
Prix de Lutece winner (Moonshiner): 312634111 (4-2-9)
Prix des Orfevres winner (Doha Dream): 1 (1-0-1)
Derby de L'Ouest winner (Doha Dream): 9514 (1-0-5)
Derby du Languedoc winner (Sotteville): 74 (0-0-2)
8 of 10 winners ran in Prix de Lutece last time, finishing 21322111
4 of 10 winners ran in Prix Michel Houyvet, finishing 1123
3 of 10 winners ran in Prix de Troarn, finishing 111
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix La Force, finishing 34
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix de la Pointe du Hoc, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix du Lys, finishing 35

Trainers
French-trained runners: 10-14-62
British-trained runners: 0-2-9
German-trained runners: 0-0-3
Irish-trained runners: 0-0-5
All 10 winners were trained in France. The 14 British & Irish runners gained just 2 places.
Alain de Royer-Dupre (3-3-10) has a fantastic record in this, gaining 5 wins and 3 places from 12 representatives since 2003.
Andre Fabre (1-5-18) has also gained 2 wins & 5 places from his last 20 runners.
Freddie Head (1-0-1) trained the winner in 2008.
Hughie Morrison (0-1-3) & Jean Claude Rouget (0-1-3) saddled the 2nd & 3rd in 2014.

Price
No strong trends on prices though there haven’t been many major shocks in this, two longest priced winners went off 14/1 & 11/1.
Favourites (3-2-10) have won 3 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 4.08.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Irish or French bred
- By a sire with stamina index of 10.2F+
- Run 3 to 6 times in 2016
- Finished in first 3 last time out
- Posted an RPR of 105 or higher last time
- Gained first win over 1M 2F or further
- Has won over 1M 4F+
- Won a group 3 or listed race
- Placed in group company
- Finished in first 4 in Prix Michel Houyvet, La Force and/or D'Avre
- Finished in first 3 in Prix de Lutece last time
- Trained in France, especially by Alain de Royer-Dupre