DEWHURST STAKES TRENDS 2016

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The Dubai Dewhurst Stakes is the most prestigious juvenile race run in Great Britain. It takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 8th October on the supporting card to the Cesarewitch. Jim Bolger has dominated the race in recent years, supplying 5 of the last 10 winners despite not being represented in 2 of last 3 renewals.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 2yos

Breeding
9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner that won a race as a 2yo
10 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 8.1F to 11.2F
5 of 10 winners were by Galileo or a son of Galileo
5 of 10 winners were by a son of Danehill or out of a daughter of Danehill
Record of progeny of War Front: 11 (2-0-2)

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice
7 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out (2 exceptions were beaten in Jean Luc Lagardere & other 4th in Champagne Stakes)
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 110+ last time (exception did so on penultimate start)
10 of 10 winners ran in past 50 days (last 2 exceptions not to do won the Vintage Stakes last time)
7 of 10 winners had won over 7F (3 exceptions won over 6F & finished in first 3 in a group 1 or 2 over 7F)
7 of 10 winners had won a class 1 race (2 exceptions were 3rd in a group 1 and other was 2nd in a group 2)
7 of 10 winners finished in first 3 in a group 1 (2 of 3 exceptions had yet to run in a group 1)
8 of 8 Irish-trained winners gained their first win at Leopardstown or Curragh

Other races
National Stakes winner (Chuchill): 11211 (4-1-5)
Futurity Stakes winner (Churchill): 2111 (3-1-4)
Tyros Stakes winner (Churchill): 117 (2-0-3)
Solario Stakes winner (South Seas): 3 (0-1-1)
Gimcrack Stakes winner (Blue Point): 4 (0-0-1)
Somerville Tattersall Stakes winner (Larchmont Lad): 653 (0-0-3)
Champagne Stakes winner (Rivet): 575347 (0-0-6)
6 of 8 Irish-trained winners ran in the National Stakes, finishing 116311
4 of 8 Irish-trained winners ran in Futurity Stakes, finishing 1121
4 of 8 Irish-trained winners ran in Phoenix Stakes, finishing 5831
4 of 8 Irish-trained winners ran in Coventry Stakes, finishing 2112
3 of 8 Irish-trained winners ran in Tyros Stakes, finishing 112
2 of 8 Irish-trained winners ran in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 36
2 of last 4 British-trained winners ran in Vintage Stakes last time, finishing 11

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-4-18) won the race three times in past 10 years, in 2009 with outsider Beethoven & in 2013 & 2015 with War Command & Air Force Blue, who were both War Front colts.
John Gosden (0-1-6) has gained just 1 place from his 6 runners since 2006.
Mark Johnston (0-0-4) won the race in 2004 with Shamardal but his last 4 runners have all been unplaced.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-0-4) & the Richard Hannon yard (0-0-5) have failed to see any of their combined 9 runners make the frame.
Irish-trained runners (8-6-30) have won 8 of the last 10, Jim Bolger has accounted for 5 of those wins, O’Brien the other 3.

Price
No strong trends on prices with 6 of last 10 winners were favourites while the other 4 winners went off 10/1, 20/1, 20/1 & 33/1.
Favourites (6-2-10) have won 6 of the last 10 but show a level stakes profit of 1.42.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- By War Front, Galileo (or a son of) and/or out of a daughter by Danehill
- Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- Ran in past 50 days (or won Vintage Stakes last time)
- Posted an RPR of 110+ last time
- Won over 7F (or finished in first 3 in group 1 or 2 over 7F)
- Won a group race (or placed in a group 1)
- Finished in first 2 in Coventry, Tyros and/or Futurity Stakes
- Irish-trained winner that finished in first 3 in National and/or Phoenix Stakes
- Irish-trained winner that won maiden at Leopardstown or Curragh
- British-trained that won Vintage Stakes
- Trained in Ireland (especially by Aidan O’Brien)