CESAREWITCH HANDICAP TRENDS 2016

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The Betfred Cesarewitch takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 8th October and as always will be a wide open affair with over 30 runners going to post. It makes up the second part of the Autumn Double with the Cambridgeshire, which was won by Third Spark Plug two weeks ago.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 1-2-12
4yo: 3-8-101
5yo: 0-6-71
6yo: 2-8-62
7yo: 2-5-50
8yo+: 2-1-31
horses aged 3 to 5: 4-16-183
horses aged 6 or older: 6-14-143

Weights
horses carrying 9-7 or more: 1-4-23
horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-8-71
horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 4-12-102
horses carrying 8-0 to 8-6: 2-5-96
horses carrying 7-7 to 7-13: 1-1-32
horses carrying 7-6 or less: 0-0-3
No very strong trend to be gleaned from the weights.
Top Weight: 00590418602 (1-2-11)
horses carrying a penalty (1-5-43) don’t have a great record with just 6 of 43 runners making the frame, though they did fill the 1st & 3rd in 2011 and runners-up spot in 2012.

Official Ratings
horses rated 99 to 109: 1-8-36
horses rated 87 to 98: 8-17-185
horses rated 76 to 86: 1-5-106
8 of 10 winners were officially rated 87 to 98.

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last flat start (1 exception 6th in listed race)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 91+ last time
5 of 10 winners posted a career high flat RPR on last flat start
10 of 10 winners ran at class 3 or higher last time out
10 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times that year (flat or hurdles)
8 of 10 winners had won a class 2 or 3 handicap (1 exception beaten a neck in a class 2 handicap last time)
7 of 10 winners had previously run in 4 to 11 flat handicaps
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 4 handicaps
9 of 10 winners had won a race over 2M+ (flat or hurdles)
6 of 10 winners had run at listed or group level (1 exception had won a grade 1 hurdle)
5 of 10 winners had previously won over hurdles (since 2000, 6 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival that year)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Grumeti): 5 (0-0-1)
John Guest Brown Jack Stakes winner (Sea Of Heaven): 0801000 (1-0-7)
John Smith's Stayers' Handicap winner (Magic Circle): 0 (0-0-1)
Ascot Stakes winner (Jennies Jewel): 0000 (0-0-4)
Goodwood Stakes winner (Star Rider): 0000 (0-0-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Northumberland Plate, finishing 080
3 of 10 winners ran in previous Cesarewitch, finishing 270
3 of 10 winners ran in John Guest Brown Jack Stakes, finishing 512
2 of 10 winners ran in Doncaster Cup, finishing 29
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes, finishing 43
2 of 10 winners ran in the Shergar Cup Stayers handicap, finishing 14

Trainers
Tony Martin (1-3-9) won this in 2007 and seen 4 of his other 8 runners make the first 5.
Mark Johnston (1-2-17) trained the 16/1 winner in 2004 & 66/1 winner in 2013 and also saddled runner-up in 2015.
Alan King (1-0-2), Jamie Osbourne (1-0-4) & David Simcock (1-0-4) trained a 3yo, Darley Sun, to win this in 2009.
David Pipe (0-2-13) has filled 2 placed in past 10 runnings.
Willie Mullins (0-1-2) has seen his last 3 runners since 2000 finish 4th-5th-4th.
Trainers who were predominantly focused on NH have won 8 of the 16 runnings since 2000 (Martin Pipe X 2, Nicky Henderson X 2, Philip Hobbs X 2, Alan King & Tony Martin).
Irish-trained runners (1-6-24) have made the frame with 7 of 24 runners.

Draw
horses drawn 1 to 12: 6-17-120
horses drawn 13 to 24: 3-9-120
horses drawn 25 or higher: 1-5-87
Surprisingly for a race run over 2M 2F, there is a draw bias towards horses drawn low with 8 of the last 13 winners begin drawn 1 to 12.
horses drawn 1 to 5: 4-7-50. The bottom 5 stalls have produced 7 of last 15 winners and filled over a quarter of the places in past 10 years from just over 15% of the total runners.

Racing Style
5 of 5 winners on softer than good were held up in rear or mid division
3 of 5 winners on good ground raced prominently
2 of 5 winners on good ground raced in mid division
On faster ground horses ridden more prominently have been favoured but on softer ground it has paid to be held up.

Price
Outsiders have been the order of the day in recent years. 6 of the last 8 winners have gone off at 16/1 or bigger, including winners at 50/1 in 2008 & 2015 and 66/1 winners in 2012 & 2013.
Favourites (2-5-11) have won 2 of the last 10, giving a £1 level stakes profit of £1.00.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Non-hurdler aged 3 to 5 or previous hurdles runner aged 6+
- Officially rated 87 to 98
- Finished in the first 4 last time in a class 3 or higher
- Posted highest RPR last time out (posted an RPR of 91+)
- Previously run in 4 to 11 flat handicaps (winning no more than 3)
- Won over at least 2 miles
- Won over hurdles (and ran at this year’s Cheltenham Festival)
- Previously contested a group or listed race
- Previously won a class 2 or 3 handicap
- Ran in this season’s Northumberland Plate and/or last year’s Cesarewitch
- First 5 in Ascot Stakes, Doncaster Cup, Shergar Cup Stayers or John Guest Brown Jack H’cap
- Drawn 1 to 12 (ideally in 1 to 5)
- Tends to be held up on softer or raced more prominently on faster ground

- Trained by Mark Johnston, Willie Mullins or Tony Martin