Newmarket�s Future Champions Festival Day 2 - 8/10/2016

**ganjaman2** · 8th October 2016

1.45 Newmarket � Visionsport.com EBF Stallions Boadicea Fillies� Stakes (Listed Race)

It looks as if there are a few fillies that are head and shoulders above the rest in terms of form and quality in this Listed contest and they�re conveniently sat right next to each other in the racecard. They�re all part of the three-year-old group that have dominated this race in recent times, with seven wins in the last ten years.

Number 9 in the racecard is William Haggas� Gravity Flow, who comes into the race looking to complete a five-timer. She�s been steadily progressive since her debut at Kempton in September of 2015, taking some pretty competitive handicap races in her last three runs, including defeating the likes of Battlement and Cersei at Windsor and having the re-opposing Stellarta and Secret Hint well-beaten in behind her in the Lochsong Fillies Handicap at Salisbury. She does meet Stellarta on slightly worse terms here, but a couple of pounds extra in no way suggests that the result will be any different. This race is clearly a step up from anything she�s contested before, but she�s improving all the time, has never finished outside the top two in her six races so far and is well worth her place in this company.

Next up is Kassia, trained by Mick Channon, last seen defeating Stellarta by three quarters of a length at Pontefract while giving her 1lb � the weights favour Channon�s filly here and, again, there shouldn�t be a reversal in the form. This acclamation filly has been running superbly well over the last few months, winning three times and just failing to overhaul the useful Kevin Ryan gelding, Laughton, at Goodwood when attempting to give him a stone in weight over five furlongs. She�s always been very highly regarded by her stable and now her issues with the stalls have been ironed out, she can fulfil her potential, which certainly looks to be as a Black-type filly. Six furlongs looks to be her ideal trip and she�s versatile regarding ground, winning on good-to-frim to soft ground, so she�s definitely going to be there or thereabouts under Graham Lee � it will take a very smart one to beat her on these terms.

Speaking of which, I was very keen on Charlie Appleby�s filly, MISE EN ROSE, for the Listed October Stakes at Ascot over seven furlongs last week. That was until the rain came and, of course, she was declared a non-runner. This doesn�t look to be as strong a race as that contest and with these terms making her 7lbs (at the very least) better off with her rivals than in a handicap, she�s going to be my selection again here back on ground that looks as if it will be very quick. Her form is above anything else in the race by quite some way, including second placed finishes to Spangled and Al Jazi in Group 3 contests over seven furlongs, and it�s been declared as the aim by the trainer for her to win some black type race before the season�s out. Even though this drop back to six furlongs is a leap into the unknown, the daughter of War Front looks plenty speedy enough for it and the application of cheekpieces for the first time could even help her to improve further on her already decent form. William Buick takes the ride and even though the draw in stall 2 isn�t ideal, MISE EN ROSE rates a confident pick to make it two wins in this race in the last two runnings for Appleby and Buick after Mistrusting did the business in 2015.

There is one more who deserves a mention here � the in-form William Haggas yard sends out Symposium, who�s on a four timer after pipping Group 2 & Listed-placed Ornate in a decent race at Ascot last time out. Interestingly, Ryan Moore was just beaten that day and rides this filly here so he was clearly impressed by what he saw. The filly has gone up 6lbs for that victory over a 100-rated rival and that might not be close to her true rating just yet so she can�t be ruled out confidently, even though she might prefer a softer surface.

MY Advice

MISE EN ROSE � 1.5pts win @ 10/3 (Paddy Power)

2.20 Newmarket � Dubai Business Internships Fillies� Nursery Handicap (Class 2)

These high-quality nurseries are always devilishly tricky, especially at this time of the year, and this one looks no different, with six of the field already rated above 80. One such contender is the Khalid Abdullah-owned Amabilis, who dead heated with the useful Dubara at Beverley last time out. On that evidence, her mark is about right and she�ll need to have improved to take this, but Ralph Beckett has had a great season yet again with his fillies and it�s certainly not out of the question that she has.

Muthmira broke her maiden tag last time out at Yarmouth in good style on fast ground, making all and dominating all the way to the line. She was denied a clear run at Ascot the run before that and showed clear promise so it was no surprise that she stepped up again. The question is whether a mark of 81 is fair for that one decent performance. Judging by the quality of some of Simon Crisford�s two-year-olds this season, this filly could be another good one, so the booking of Silvestre De Sousa suggests 81 is not insurmountable.

One who has a bit more experience in this type of race is Seduce Me, trained by Karl Burke and last seen finishing a close fourth in a valuable six furlong sales race at this track. The step up to seven furlongs should definitely help to draw out more from this tough-looking type and she�s definitely got a great chance of making the frame at least. It�s possible that she might want a little more cut in the surface than she�s going to get, but the daughter of Dutch Art could be one to stay on when others have cried enough � she was first home in her group on that last day and was just undone by being on the wrong side.

The Godolphin filly Romantic View, who is the top-rated (87) filly in the race, was last seen finishing fifth behind Pichola Dance in a good-looking contest over C&D around two weeks ago. That was her first run since June, so the fact she weakened a little in the final 100 yards can be forgiven somewhat and she should strip fitter again today. The fast ground will suit and even though she�ll have to carry the welter burden, she�s got a leading chance again.

After Glitter Girl�s second place in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes, the third and fourth in the six and a half furlong Nursery that she won at Doncaster a month ago look to have great chances on form. Fire Palace, trained by Robert Eddery, looked as if she�d appreciate this step up to seven furlongs when running on well towards the end of that race and after going up just 2lbs in the weights, she should run well again here. The worry is that she doesn�t have the considerable 7lb assistance of claiming jockey Cameron Noble here, so she�s effectively 9lb higher, which could be too much to bear.

Island Vision was just three quarters of a length behind Fire Palace that day and with an effective 9lb swing back in her favour here, you�d expect that form to be turned on its head. Despite being the second string contender for Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum judging by the colours assigned (red cap), Jim Crowley isn�t exactly a second-string booking for the saddle and I think she�s got a superb chance in a race where those towards the bottom of the handicap usually do well. Rated 78, she certainly looked a better filly than that last time when fourth off the same mark after being carried left before staying on and if David Simcock has kept her improving again, she has to have a superb chance.

However, there is another in the race that could be even further ahead of her mark and it�s the Mick Channon-trained HARMONISE. She was a close second behind Pichola Dance, who ran in the Oh So Sharp Stakes on Friday and was admittedly well-beaten, but the form of that run (ahead of Blushing Rose, Clef, Romantic View and Arwa amongst others) looks pretty strong. She�s only gone up 2lb for that effort, which seems very lenient and off a mark of 72, she could be primed to strike over a trip that suits. She�s only 2lb worse off with the Godolphin filly here for about a length, so even though they�re entitled to be closer, Channon�s filly could still have the edge if she�s continued her improvement. Of course it�s never easy for a maiden to win a race as competitive as this, but she�s never been outside the first three in her races, behind smart horses like Isomer and this mark could be very lenient. Luke Morris is a good booking and this filly could put up a great showing off a low weight and at a decent price.

MY Advice

HARMONISE � 0.75pts e/w @ 12/1 (Paddy Power)

2.55 Newmarket � Dubai 100 Autumn Stakes (Group 3)

There aren�t many maidens with better form than The Anvil who was a close second behind Best Of Days in the Royal Lodge Stakes over course and distance last time. Aidan O�Brien�s colt has also been placed on his two remaining starts but a repeat of his latest run would surely give him an obvious chance here. We saw on Friday how strong the Ballydoyle string of juveniles is when sending home the first two in the Fillies Mile. We know he handles the track and in this slightly weaker contest than the one he ran in a couple of weeks ago, he looks a must for the shortlist.

David Evans� Sea Fox finished just behind The Anvil in third last time and could have been overlooked here on this occasion. He has had plenty of racing but he is likely to be ridden in the same way by Adam Kirby and I think 20/1 doesn�t accurately reflect his chances.

Simon Crisford�s Rodaini is the only member of the field with an unbeaten record and he stretched that sequence to four when holding on to win the Listed Flying Scotsman at Doncaster. He has been brought along steadily by his trainer and seems to be reaping the rewards. The form of that race has been boosted with the third having won a Group 3 since and he looks to have a leading chance on his first start in Group company.

However, I think the one they all have to beat is LOCKHEED who has always been held in high regard by his connections and has yet to disappoint them in four starts. He may have been a shade disappointing when beaten in the Acomb at York but the runner-up has won in better company since so he may just have bumped into a couple. His latest run behind Churchill in the National Stakes at the Curragh was a career best and the way he stayed on suggested this mile trip should suit. There are a couple of unexposed runners in the field who could be good but I would be surprised if they improved past him.

The most interesting of the maiden winners is probably Sir Michael Stoute�s Zainhom who got off the mark at the second attempt at York in September. The son of Street Cry travelled powerfully through the race before picking up smartly in the closing stages and he looks to have earned a crack at this sort of race. Sir Michael Stoute�s juveniles tend to improve with experience and I would expect him to step forward again here.

Roger Varian�s Solomon�s Bay also got his head in front at the second time of asking at Yarmouth last month, beating a couple of smart colts. He didn�t finish too far behind Lockheed on debut at Ascot and at around 16/1, he could have an each-way chance if he builds on his latest success.

MY Advice

LOCKHEED � 1pt win @ 7/2 (bet365, William Hill)

3.30 Newmarket � The Dubai Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1)

The Dewhurst is perennially one of the strongest juvenile races of the season and this year�s renewal looks to be a mouth-watering affair.

Seven Heavens is bidding for a fairytale victory with the illustrious 2010 winner Frankel his superb first-season sire. John Gosden�s charge was a warm order on debut at Ascot in July and lived up to the hype as he accounted for the subsequently very smart Lockheed in decent fashion. In truth though, we haven�t really learned a great deal more about him since then as although he extended his unbeaten record with a facile victory in a valuable conditions event at Goodwood at the back end of August, he only had one other rival who has been well beaten since. He is a scopey animal who is sure to come on for that run though and is likely to play his hand in the finish.

It is a slight surprise that there are only two unbeaten colts in the field given the strength of the line-up with South Seas the only other to have an unblemished record. Qatar Racing�s chestnut has done nothing but impress since sluicing up in a Windsor maiden on his debut in June, defying a penalty with ease in a Haydock novice event a month later and hammering his rivals in the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown latest. You can�t knock what he has achieved so far as he couldn�t really do any more but all of his wins have come with a bit of juice in the ground and he is unproven on the likely good to firm going he will encounter here. If he goes close here, he must be rated a top contender for the Racing Post Trophy in a fortnight for the same connections that bagged the Doncaster Group 1 back in 2014 with Elm Park.

With that in mind, preference is for CHURCHILL to make it three wins in the last four years for Aidan O�Brien. The Galileo colt has only been beaten once in his career, over an inadequate six furlongs on debut, and has gone from strength-to-strength since then with his latest demolition of a quality field in the Group 1 National Stakes (the same race won by last year�s top two-year-old Air Force Blue), a particular highlight. He has been touted as a Guineas horse since winning the Chesham at Royal Ascot back in June and has done little to dispel that theory. With Lancaster Bomber likely to set the race up nicely for him, he could prove very difficult to beat.

Belardo arrived here in 2014 on the back of a poor showing in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes but the Doncaster event is well represented this time round with the 1-2 both lining up. Rivet came out narrowly on top on that occasion and he still looks to be a colt on a steep upward curve. He was a tad green on debut at Ascot but still performed with credit when second and built on that in no uncertain terms when hosing up in the Convivial Maiden at York�s Ebor Festival. That always tends to be a strong affair and this year was no different with the second, third, fourth and fifth all franking the form by scoring subsequently. He was easy to back prior to the Champagne Stakes but travelled strongly throughout and proved too strong at the finish for his five rivals. He shouldn�t be underestimated today.

Godolphin�s Thunder Snow put up a valiant effort to try and hold off William Haggas� charge at Doncaster and only succumbed late on to go down by a head. The conditions here should be perfect for him with his only below-par effort coming on soft ground in the Coventry (and even that was a decent display being drawn on the wrong side and racing alone down the middle of the track). He has had to play second fiddle a couple of times in Group 2s though and looks to be the second string as he steps up to Group 1 company for the first time but he could well outrun his price.

The first string for the �Boys in Blue� is the aptly-named Blue Point who is yet to finish outside of the first two in five starts to date. The Shamardal colt came to the attention of the racing world with a blistering 11-length win in a Doncaster novice event in July and immediately had the top two-year-old races on his radar. He went down narrowly to Mehmas in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, when many thought he should have won getting 3lb from the winner, but bounced back in fine style with a dominant display in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes at York in August. Although he was again a beaten short-priced favourite, he performed with credit going down by less than a length to The Last Lion in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes and still rates one of the top juveniles around. However, connections had mooted that that would be it for his season, so it is a slight concern that this may be an afterthought and he hasn�t shaped as though crying out for the step up to seven furlongs either.

MY Advice

CHURCHILL � 2pts win @ 8/11 (bet365 & William Hill)

4.10 Newmarket � The Betfred Cesarewitch.

The age factor has been muddied somewhat with the last two renewals going to seven-year-olds but the average age of the winner over the last ten years is six and the historic age groups still look the way to go. With victories for Heros Fatal, Sergeant Cecil, Leg Spinner and Aaim To Prosper, six-year-olds have fared fairly well in recent years.

The record of four-year-olds has been boosted with the victories of Detroit City, Never Can Tell and Scatter Dice in recent times, taking their total to ten winners since 1974. There are a couple of four-year-olds towards the head of the market this time around including Sea of Heaven, The Cashel Man and Sweet Selection, so that record could be yet improved further.

Going back in the annals of time, three-year-olds had an ok strike-rate, with eight wins between 1975 and 1998, but it has been a different story in more recent years with Darley Sun the only winner and only one other managing to finish in the frame. We only have one member of the Classic generation, the likely favourite St Michel, going to post this year and he looks a risky proposition from an age perspective.

It isn�t a surprise that in a marathon contest such as this, lightweights have prospered with 16 of the last 21 winners carting 9st or less to victory. Three of the five to upset the applecart have been in the last ten years so it would be folly to rule them out entirely just on this trend alone.

The weight factor goes hand in hand with the official ratings and it would seem that the best bracket ofr the Cesarewitch would be those rated from 97 to 98. horses falling into this category have won eight of the last 11 renewals which isn�t a great sign for some of the more fancies runners in the line-up including Oriental Fox (103) and Golden Spear (86).

The Cesarewitch rarely raises any alarms when it comes to the trends and the fact that National Hunt trainers have a good record shouldn�t be too much of a surprise. Jumps trainers have been responsible for five of the last 10 winners, with Philip Hobbs leading the charge courtesy of wins with Detroit City and Big Easy. Hobbs is without a runner this year but there are still some top jumps yards represented by the likes of last year�s winner Grumeti, Starchitect and Modem.

Scatter Dice is the only winner not to have tasted victory over 2m+ before lining up which suggest that proven stamina is a must in the Cesarewitch. The 2m 2f trip really sorts the men from the boys and with the rise in the dip coming around a furlong out, you don�t want to be siding with a doubtful stayer.

Grumeti bucked the trend last year but historically a top-4 finish last time out is a significant advantage with eight of the last 11 winners backing that up. The likes of Oriental Fox, Sweet Selection and Sea of Heaven look to have something to find here whereas supporters of Life Less Ordinary, Leah Freya and Starchitect can be buoyed with their charges arriving here on the back of a win last time.

You would think that the draw would prove elementary in a 2m 2f race but in keeping with similar races of this nature, the Chester Cup and Northumberland Plate, a high draw looks to be a significant disadvantage. In the last decade, only two winners have been drawn higher than 20 so the draw is definitely not to ignored.

There have been only two winning favourites in the past ten years (Detroit City & Darley Sun) with Vintage Crop also justifying favouritism in fine style back in 1992. It isn�t a shock that the fate of the favourite has been indifferent in a 30-odd runner handicap and the percentage call is to look elsewhere.

Take into account that there have been a pair of 66/1 winners and a 50/1 shot in the last decade, and it shows that even if you fancy a rank outsider, they could still hold a realistic chance.

Shortlist

THE CASHEL MAN 7/8

First Mohican 7/8

Modem 7/8

Conclusion

Of the four that matched with all but one of the trends, THE CASHEL MAN appeals most. He only falls short due to not being trained by a national hunt handler and arrives here 3lb well-in as he�s due to go up to a mark of 92 thanks to his solid second in the Cesarewitch Trial three weeks ago. The four-year-old represents an age group with a good recent record and looks to have a plum draw in 8. He has proven steadily progressive throughout his career although has been without a win this season, albeit in some pretty hot handicaps, and has looked like he has been coming to the boil with decent in-frame efforts in his last two starts.

A pair of outsiders complete the shortlist with First Mohican appealing most of the duo. He just sneaks into the category with Hollie Doyle�s 5lb taking his weight down to 9st exactly and represents last year�s winning trainer Alan King.

Modem is the final one of the quartet to just narrowly miss out on a full set of the trends. Jessica Harrington�s charge remains on a career-high mark on the level, despite being found out in big field handicaps the last twice, although did perform with great credit when not beaten far in fourth in the Galway Hurdle back in July. He looks a relative outsider on paper but as we all know in the Cesarewitch, that doesn�t rule him out!

MY Advice

THE CASHEL MAN � 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (Boylesports & bet365)

4.45 Newmarket � Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (Listed Race)

The furthest distance that 2yos run over in Britain is 1m2f and this Listed contest can often produce a nice stayer for next season.

Mark Johnston has saddled two winners in the last decade and is doubly represented in this year�s renewal by Bear Valley and Permian. The former looked to be improving at a rapid rate when winning a competitive Goodwood nursery in taking fashion back in July. He hasn�t really gone on from that in Group 3 company on his last two starts and needs the step up in trip and drop to Listed class to revive his fortunes. His stablemate has already won over an extended mile at Windsor and should have no trouble seeing out the extra two furlongs here. Having said that, his form isn�t as strong as Bear Valley and I slightly prefer him of the two.

The Godolphin team also have a pretty good record in the race and pin their hopes on Fly At Dawn who has won three of his four career starts to date. His only defeat saw him finish behind Sir Dancealot who was far from disgraced in Group 3 company a couple of weeks ago. Charlie Appleby�s colt had no problem seeing out the mile in a nursery on the Rowley Mile a couple of weeks ago and he looks worth a try over this trip. He will need to step forward again to figure here but that isn�t out of the question.
Roger Varian�s Defoe should have no trouble stepping up in trip having been staying on over a mile when second at Epsom a couple of weeks ago. The son of Dalakhani isn�t exactly flashy and on the bare form he has plenty on his plate here. However, his connections have a number of nice horses in their care and it would be no surprise if this 1m2f trip brings about further improvement from him.

There are a couple of maidens who take the step into Listed company including Genetics who got off the mark at the second time of asking at Newbury last time. His pedigree suggests that middle distance races are likely to be his forte and his rider was very keen on him after riding him last time. Hugo Palmer�s Star Archer may have taken three goes to get off the mark but bumped into two smart rivals on his first two starts and won with plenty in hand at Haydock last time. There were no signs of him stopping over a mile on that occasion and it may be that this trip unlocks further potential in the colt.

Like any race in Britain, any runner from the Aidan O�Brien stable is worth a second look and he brings Wings Of Eagles over for this race. The Pour Moi colt seemed to appreciate the step up in trip when winning over 8.5f at Killarney in August. It is hard to know what he achieved in terms of form on that occasion but he certainly shaped like a stayer despite being very green. He should be able to step forward with that experience under his belt and it is hard to see him being given the number of suitable candidates at the yard�s disposal.

However, I think that John Gosden may hold the key to this race and whilst Cunco had a lofty reputation in the early part of the season, his last few performances have dented that to a degree. He seemed to be outstayed in soft ground at Haydock last time which is a bit of a concern stepping up in trip especially as he has been keen in the past. With that in mind I am going to side with CORONET who won with more in hand than the half-length winning margin suggested at Leicester. The filly quickened up smartly to gain a good lead but just had a look around in the closing stages and was pushed out to win. She should have learnt plenty from that run and with her half-brothers Midas Touch and Streetcar To Stars having stayed well, this trip should be fine for her. A filly took this race last year and they look to have a leading chance of taking the prize this time around.

MY Advice

CORONET � 1pt win @ 100/30 (Paddy Power)

5.20 Newmarket � Godolphin Stud And Stable Staff Awards Darley Stakes (Group 3)

Our final race of the day is over the Cambridgeshire trip of 1m1f so the best place to start is with the runner-up from that race Carry On Deryck who found only Spark Plug too good on the day. The four-year-old is probably bound for Meydan this winter as he won there last year but he ran well with a big weight on his back a couple of weeks ago and with an official mark of 109, he looks worth a crack at Group company. As discussed he has form at the track and if he can repeat his Cambridgeshire run then he shouldn�t be too far away.

Another four-year-old stepping out on handicap company is Muffri�ha who had plenty in hand on her rivals when winning here last weekend. She found it hard going in Listed company two starts ago but her jockey believes that she likes to make the running and the switch of tactics seemed to do the trick last week. That success under top weight needs marking up a bit and if she handles this extra furlong, then she could prove tough to pass.

David O�Meara�s Custom Cut isn�t likely to be too far away from the pace and on the pick of his form, he would have a leading chance in this race. His last win was a Group 2 last September but he has acquitted himself well in Group company since then, including when second to Awtaad at Leopardstown last month. His latest effort in the Joel Stakes was a disappointing one but this looks an easier assignment and if he bounces back to form, he would probably be the one to beat.
However, there are a few three-year-olds in the field and perhaps the most interesting of these is Group 1 winner Johannes Vermeer who hasn�t been seen since winning the Criterium International at Saint Cloud last November. He was thought by many to be one of the leading Derby hopes for Ballydoyle but clearly he has had his problems and he will need to be close to full fitness to win here. He doesn�t carry a penalty for that Group 1 success but the fitting of a tongue tie for the first time raises some alarm bells and on the balance of things, I think he is worth taking on.

Sir Michael Stoute�s Abdon also shouldn�t be too far away and he probably just got bogged down in the soft ground at Ayr when we last saw him. I know he won on soft at Newbury but that was over a mile and I think the 1m2f on soft ground just stretched his stamina on this occasion. He should appreciate the return to a faster surface and the intermediate trip could prove perfect for him. Having said that, he will need to find a good deal of improvement on what he has done so far to win at this level.

Instead, I am going to side with ANCIENT HISTORY who has been brought along slowly by his trainer Andre Fabre and has now won two of his last three starts. His latest win at Maissons-Lafitte saw him win with a bit in hand, despite only winning by a neck at the line. That was over 1m2f but he never settled and you get the impression that when he does learn to settle, he will improve a lot. The way that races are run over here in contrast to France should suit him better and hopefully stop him being so exuberant in the early part of the race. As with the filly yesterday any runner that Fabre sends over needs respecting and with just the eight runners here, at 7/1 he looks a solid each-way bet.

MY Advice

ANCIENT HISTORY � 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (bet365, Paddy Power