The Qipco Champion Stakes will be one of four group 1’s taking place at Ascot on Saturday 15th October for the fourth Champions’ Day. Previously run at Newmarket, the race was moved to Ascot in 2011.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
3yo: 2-7-36
4yo: 3-5-41
5yo: 4-3-17
6yo+: 1-4-11
There’s not a huge amount to go on from the age, though older horses (aged 5+) have won 5 of 10 despite only representing 26.7% of total runners.
2 of 5 winners aged 5+ finished in the first 2 in the previous year’s race.

Gender
Fillies and mares (1-3-10) have gained 1 win in the past 10 years from approximately 9.5% of the total.
Females aged 3: 0-2-3
Females aged 4+: 1-1-7

Breeding
8 of 10 winners were sired by a horse with a stamina index of 9.3F to 11.3F
Progeny of Galileo: 153139162 (3-2-9)

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had won a class 1 race that season
7 of 10 winners had their last start at Goodwood, Leopardstown or Longchamp
7 of 10 winners won last time out (3 exceptions were 2nd or 3rd in a group 1 or 2)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 116+ last time (exception posted RPR of 127 on previous start)
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F (1 exception had been placed in group 1's on all 3 previous runs over this trip)
6 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (4 exceptions finished 2nd in a group 1)
9 of 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season (exception won group 1 on sole start)
4 of last 5 winners aged 3 had won a group or listed race as a 2yo

Other races
Previous season's winner (Fascinating Rock): 102 (1-1-3)
Tatts Gold Cup winner (Fascinating Rock): 3621 (1-2-4)
Mooresbridge Stakes winner (Found): 21 (1-1-2)
Irish Champion Stakes winner (Almanzor): 12 (1-1-2)
Eclipse winner (Hawkbill): 6123 (1-1-4)
Royal Whip Stakes winner (Success Days): 22 (0-2-2)
Oaks winner (Minding): 3 (0-1-1)
Chester Vase winner (US Army Ranger): 53 (0-1-2)
Nassau Stakes winner (Minding): 4 (0-0-1)
Prix du Jockey Club winner (Almanzor): 4 (0-0-1)
King George winner (Highland Reel): 65 (0-0-2)
Record of horses that had run in the Arc last time: 3106323922 (1-6-10)
3 of 8 winners aged 4+ ran in Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, finishing 121
3 of 8 winners aged 4+ ran in the Lockinge, finishing 311
2 of 8 winners aged 4+ ran in Prince Of Wales Stakes, finishing 42
2 of 8 winners aged 4+ ran in the Eclipse, finishing 71
2 of 8 winners aged 4+ ran in Prix Ganay, finishing 43
2 of 8 winners aged 4+ ran in Tattersalls Gold Cup, finishing 12
4 of last 5 winners aged 3 ran in that season's 2000 Guineas, finishing 8102
3 of 10 winners ran in the Juddmonte International, finishing 321
2 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Stakes, finishing 13

Trainers
Dermot Weld (1-1-2) trained the winner in 2015 and 3rd in 2014.
Alain De Royer-Dupre (1-0-2) saddled Pride to finish 1st & 2nd in this in 2006 & 2005. His last 3 runners have been female.
Jim Bolger (1-0-2), Jean-Claude Rouget (1-0-3) & Saeed Bin Suroor (1-0-6) have also won the race once in last 10 years.
Surprisingly Aidan O’Brien (0-4-9) and John Gosden (0-2-11) have both failed to ever train the winner of this race.
Michael Stoute (0-2-9) won this in 1997 & 2000 but has seen just 2 of his 9 runners in last 10 years make the places.
Andre Fabre (0-1-4) won this in 1991 & 1994 but has only gained 1 place from 5 runners since 2000.
French–based trainers (3-5-18) have done well, gaining 3 wins and 5 places from approximately 17.1% of the total runners.

Price
Not a strong trends race on prices with winners varying from 6/5 to 14/1.
Favourites (2-5-10) have a poor record, winning just 2 of last 10 & show a level stakes loss of 6.62.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a horse with a stamina index of 9.3F and 11.3F (ideally by Galileo)
- 3yo who won a class 1 race as a 2yo & ran in 2000 Guineas
- 4 or 5yo that placed in GP de Saint Cloud, Juddmonte Int’l, Lockinge and/or 2015 Champions Stakes
- Run at least 4 times in 2016 & won a class 1 race this year
- Won last time out (or 2nd/3rd in a group 1)
- Posted an RPR of 116+ last time
- Won over 1M 2F (or placed in group 1 over this trip)
- Previously finished in the first 2 in a group 1
- Trained in France or by Dermot Weld