The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (sponsored by Qipco) takes place at Ascot this Saturday 15th October as part of Champions’ Day. A group 1 run over a mile, it has been won by some top class animals in the past 10 years, including Frankel in 2011. The winner automatically qualifies for the Breeders Cup Mile but 2008 winners Raven’s Pass went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic and 2009 winner Rip Van Winkle was sent off favourite for the Classic. However with the proximity of the Breeders Cup to the new date for the race will make it hard for the winner to follow up over in the States.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 7-12-41
4yo: 1-1-21
5yo: 2-0-13
6yo+: 0-3-7
3 year olds have won 7 of last 10 but have represented almost 50% of total runners.
3 of 3 winners aged 4+ had won a group 1 earlier that year and had finished in top 2 in the Queen Anne at that season’s Royal Ascot.

Gender
Fillies and mares (0-2-7) have managed 2 places from 7 runners in the period (11/4, 14/1, 7/1, 11/2, 16/1, 9/2 & 20/1). The last female to win this was Milligram in 1987.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (7 won)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 117+ last time (exception posted RPR of 127 on penultimate start)
10 of 10 winners had run 3 or more times that season
10 of 10 winners had won a group race that year
8 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (1 exception had finished 2nd in 3 group 1's)
9 of 10 winners had previously won over a mile (exception had finished 2nd in 1M group 1's on last 2 runs)
7 of 7 winners aged 3 won a group race as 2yo and contested a 2yo group 1

Other Races
2000 Guineas winner (Galileo Gold): 1251426 (2-2-7)
Celebration Mile winner (Lightning Spear): 12148 (2-0-5)
St James Palace winner (Galileo Gold): 2221846 (1-3-7)
Vintage Stakes winner (Galileo Gold): 13 (1-1-2)
Prix Jacques Le Marois winner (Ribchester): 4521 (1-1-4)
Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Awtaad): 226 (0-2-3)
Superior Mile winner (Hathal): 25 (0-1-2)
Craven Stakes winner (Stormy Atlantic): 433 (0-1-3)
Joel Stakes winner (Cougar Mountain): 08 (0-0-2)
Falmouth Stakes winner (Alice Springs): 57 (0-0-2)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes, finishing 12111
3 of 10 winners ran in Prix du Moulin last time, finishing 221
2 of 10 winners ran in Prix Jacque Le Marois, finishing 12
5 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 14415
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the French 2000 Guineas, finishing 80
3 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Celebration Mile last time, finishing 311
3 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in the Dewhurst as a 2yo, finishing 371
2 of 7 winners aged 3 (last 2) ran in Prix Jean Luc Lagardere, finishing 13
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in St James Palace Stakes, finishing 521
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in Greenham Stakes, finishing 11
2 of 7 winners aged 3 ran in Prix Jean Prat, finishing 21
3 of 3 winners aged 4+ ran in Queen Stakes, finishing 121
2 of 3 winners aged 4+ ran in Lockinge Stakes, finishing 22

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-4-15) has won 3 of the last 10 runnings and his record with his first string is 3-4-9.
Roger Varian (0-1-1) & Richard Fahey (0-1-1) saddled the 2nd & 3rd in 2015.
French-trained runners (2-1-11) have won the last 2 runnings, both came from Freddie Head yard.

Price
10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
The longest priced winner in the past 10 years was Olympic Glory at 11/2 in 2013.
Favourites (5-3-10) have won 5 of the last 10 but still show a level stakes loss of 0.39.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- 3yo that won a group race at 2 & finished in first 4 in the 2000 Guineas
- Or aged 4 or 5 that won a group 1 in 2016 & finished in first 3 in Queen Anne
- Finished in the first 3 last time (ideally won)
- Posted RPR of 117+ last time out
- Won a group race this year
- Group 1 winner
- Won over a mile
- Finished in first 2 in Queen Anne, Jacques Le Marois, Lockinge and/or Sussex Stakes
- Finished in first 3 in Prix du Moulin or Celebration Mile last time
- From first 3 in the betting
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien