RACING POST TROPHY TRENDS 2016

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The Racing Post Trophy, the final group 1 of the British flat season, takes place at Doncaster on Saturday 22nd October. Recently the race has been a good guide to the following year’s Derby with 4 winners, since 2000, going on to win at Epsom and the 2013 winner, Kingston Hill, was runner-up in the Derby and won the St Leger .

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
Race for 2yos

Breeding
6 of 10 winners were by Sadler's Wells, a son of Sadler's Wells or out of a mare by Sadler's Wells
3 of 10 winners were by Montjeu
9 of 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 8.8F to 11.7F (exception was Casamento in 2010 who was by Shamardal but whose dam sire had a stamina index of 14.0F)
Galileo progeny: 241532542 (1-4-9)

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had had 1 to 4 previous career starts
9 of 10 winners (last 9) won their maiden over 7F or 1M
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
6 of 7 winners that had run more than once posted an RPR of 101+ last time (exception won maiden on previous start)
8 of 10 winners had their last run in past 40 days (2 exceptions won maiden last time)
8 of 10 winners won on their last start over 1M (one exception had yet to run over 1M)
5 of 10 winners had won a group 2 or 3 (5 others had yet to run in a class 1 race)

Other races
Beresford Stakes winner (Capri): 45114 (2-0-5)
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden winner (Finn Mccool): 1 (1-0-1)
Frank Conroy EBF maiden winner (Douglas Macarthur): 1 (1-0-1)
Flying Scotsman Stakes winner (Rodaini): 3 (0-1-1)
Ascendant Stakes winner (Frankuus): 633 (0-1-3) Hay 8 Sep 1m
3 of last 5 Irish-trained winner ran in Beresford Stakes last time, finishing 211
2 of 6 British-trained winners ran in Autumn Stakes last time, finishing 11
There are no set pattern races for this as many winners have come here directly from a maiden success.

Trainers
Aidan O’Brien (3-5-23) has trained 3 of the last 7 winners of this race and also the runner-up in past 3 renewals.
Brian Meehan (1-3-7) has saddled 1 winner and 3 places from 7 runners since 2006.
Michael Stoute (0-0-3) last won this in 2000 but his last 4 runners have been unplaced.
Mark Johnston (0-1-6) saddled 2 seconds and a third from 7 runners since 2005.
Irish trained runners (4-7-32) have won 4 of the last 7 runnings.

Price
7 of 10 winners were sent off favourite
The favourite (7-1-10) has gained 7 wins, 1 second, 1 third & 1 fourth in past 10 years and show a £1 level stakes profit of £11.28.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by horse with a stamina index of 9.1F+
- Sired by a son of Sadler’s Wells or out of a Sadler’s Wells mare
- Finished in the first 3 last time out & posted highest RPR
- Posted RPR of 101+ last time (or won maiden last time)
- Run 1 to 4 times this year
- Run in last 40 days
- Won over 7F or 1M
- Won on last start over 1M
- Has won a group 2 or 3 (or won maiden last time)
- Trained in Ireland (ideally by Aidan O’Brien) or by Brian Meehan
- Favourite has a strong record