The Monet´s Garden Old Roan Chase is a grade 2 handicap chase run over 2M 4F and it takes place at Aintree on Sunday, 23rd October. The Ryanair and Melling Chases have proven the best guides to this race in recent seasons.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 renewals:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-0-1
6yo: 1-0-7
7yo: 2-3-17
8yo: 1-6-19
9yo: 1-2-18
10yo: 2-1-12
11yo+: 3-2-8
horses aged 5 to 8: 4-9-44
horses aged 9 to 12: 6-5-38
2 of 3 winners aged younger than 8 had won a grade 1 chase in previous 12 months.
horses aged 11+ have a super record, though 2 of those 3 wins were provided by the mighty Monet’s Garden. All 3 winners aged 11+ had finished in first 2 in a previous renewal.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
horses carrying 11-0 or more: 7-8-36
horses carrying 10-13 or less: 3-6-46
9 of 10 winners (last 7) carried 10-10 or more.
Top Weight: 1241432672 (2-2-10)

Official Ratings
horses rated 154 or higher: 8-9-41
horses rated 153 or lower: 2-5-41
horses officially rated 150 or higher have won the last 10 runnings.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners were having their first run over fences for over 150 days
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 154+ on 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
10 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (8 had run in 7 or fewer)
10 of 10 winners had won 3 or fewer handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had previously won a graded chase (one exception had won a listed handicap chase)
8 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase (2 exceptions yet to run in a grade 1 chase)
9 of 10 winners had won a graded chase in previous 12 months
9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F or further (exception finished close 2nd in a 2M 4F handicap chase on last run on first try over 2M 4F+)

Other Races
Highest placed finisher from Ryanair Chase: 12411UP (3-1-7)
Cotswold Chase winner (Smad Place): 1 (1-0-1)
Tingle Creek Chase winner (Sire De Grugy): 123 (1-0-3)
Melling Chase winner (God's Own): 1443 (1-0-4)
4 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Old Roan Chase, finishing 7146
4 of 10 winners ran in the Melling Chase last time, finishing 1328
2 of 10 winners ran in Amlin Chase 1965, finishing 6F
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's December Gold Cup, finishing 6P
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 36
2 of 10 winners ran in Ascot Chase, finishing 11 (both Monet's Garden)
7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival (3 Ryanair, 2 Queen Mother, 1 JLT Novice Chase & 1 Gold Cup)
5 of 10 winners ran at that year's Aintree National meeting (4 Melling chase & 1 Grand National)

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (2-3-12) has gained 2 win and 3 places from his 12 runners, however he has been responsible for the favourite 5 times in past 10 years.
Philip Hobbs (1-2-5) has won the race twice (2004 & 2014), both winners sent off at 14/1, and also saddled 3 more placed finishers from 7 runners since the race was inaugurated.
Alan King (0-0-4), Donald McCain (0-0-4) & Tom George (0-0-4) have each seen all 4 of their representatives finish out of the places.

Racing Tactics
5 of the 12 previous winners led from the second fence
Of the 12 previous winner, five winners made almost all, 3 raced prominently, 2 were settled in midfield and 2 were held up in rear.

Price
5 of 10 winners went off 4/1 or shorter, while the other 5 went off between 7/1 & 14/1.
Favourites (2-1-12) gained 2 wins & 1 place, giving a £1 level stakes loss of £5.50.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 7 runnings you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 9 to 12 (or won a grade 1 chase in past 12 months)
- Carrying 10-10 or more
- Officially rated 150 or higher (ideally rated 154+)
- Having first chase run this season
- Posted an RPR of 154+ on 1 or both of last 2 completed starts
- Run in 9 or fewer handicap chases (won no more than 1)
- Won over 2M 4F+
- Won a graded chase in past 12 months
- Previously finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase (or never run in a grade 1 chase)
- Ran in a chase at the 2016 Cheltenham Festival (ideally in the Ryanair)
- Finished in first 3 in Melling Chase last time
- Trained by Philip Hobbs or Paul Nicholls
- Likes to lead or race prominently