BREEDERS' CUP TURF TRENDS 2016

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The Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf is the race in which the Europeans have found most success at this meeting since 2000, with 12 of the 17 winners being trained over this side of the Pond, while 2014 winner, Main Sequence, had raced in Europe from age 2 to 4. It’s not particularly surprising, as the 1M 4F trip is not one that the Americans would regularly race over. This year’s race could see Found attempt to emulate High Chaparral and win back to back renewals for Aidan O’Brien.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 4-4-13
4yo: 3-8-39
5yo: 3-3-27
6yo+: 0-3-22
10 of 10 winners were aged 3 to 5
The four 3yo winners since 2000 were all trained in Europe. Two had finished in the first 3 in the St Leger on their previous start, one had won English & Irish Derby, one had had won the Irish 2000 Guineas and the other had finished 2nd in 4 group 1’s, including the Irish 1000 Guineas, Irish Champion Stakes and Ascot Champion Stakes)
Since the inauguration of the Breeders’ Cup in 1984 no horse aged above 5 has won the Turf.
Record of European-trained 3yos since 2000: 2117132121 (5-3-10)

Gender
Only 7 fillies/mares (1-1-7) have run in this and 6 of 7 went off 6/1 or shorter (including 2 favourites), only The Fugue (2nd in 2013 at evens) & Found (1st in 2015 at 4/1) made the frame.

Breeding
6 of 10 winners were sired by a son of Sadler’s Wells or out of a daughter of Sadler’s Wells
Progeny of Galileo: 130450141 (3-1-9)
Progeny of Montjeu: 765135 (1-1-6)
Progeny of Dynaformer: 43624 (0-2-5)

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out (exception unplaced in group 1 St James' Palace over 1M)
8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 114+ last time (5 posted 119+ last time)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 117+ in last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners had last run between 20 and 60 days ago
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 7 times that year
10 of 10 winners had won over 1M 2F or further
6 of 10 winners had won over 1M 4F (one exception having first run over 1M 4F, one had finished 2nd in 1m4f group 1, one was 3rd in 1m6f group 1 and the other was unluckiny in running in the Arc on one previous run over 1M 4F)
8 of 10 winners had won a grade/group 1 (1 exception was placed on both previous starts in a group 1 & other was having first run in a group 1)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Found): 7317 (1-1-4)
United Nation Stakes winner (World Approval): 31280813 (2-3-8)
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational winner (Ectot): 31042713 (2-3-9)
Sword Dancer Invitational winner (Flintshire): 76076281 (1-1-8)
Ormonde Stakes winner (Dartmouth): 10 (1-0-2)
King George winner (Highland Reel): 651 (1-0-3)
Arlington Million winner (Mondialiste): 51985 (1-0-5)
John Henry Turf Championship winner (Ashleyluvssugar): 2283 (0-3-4)
Elkhorn Stakes winner (Da Big Hoss): 32 (0-2-2)
Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe winner (Found): 52 (0-1-2)
Del Mar Handicap winner (Ashleyluvssugar): 892590 (0-1-6)
Manhattan Handicap winner (Flintshire): 043444 (0-1-6)
Hardwicke Stakes winner (Dartmouth): 74 (0-0-2)
Bowling Green H'cap winner (Flintshire): 7767 (0-0-4)
3 of 6 European-trained winners ran in the Arc last time, finishing 4459
2 of 6 European-trained winners aged 4 ran in King George, finishing 13
2 of 3 European-trained male winners aged 3 ran in the St Leger last time, finishing 31
2 of 3 European-trained male winners aged 3 ran in King Edward VII, finishing 22
3 of 3 American-trained winners ran in Joe Hirsch Turf Classic last time, finishing 151
2 of 3 American-trained winners ran in the Sword Dancer Invitational, finishing 21
2 of 3 American-trained winners ran in United Nations, finishing 11

Trainers
British-trained runners: 4-4-15
North American-trained runners: 3-11-66
Irish-trained runners: 3-1-12
South African-trained runners: 0-1-1
French-trained runners: 0-1-5
Argentinian-trained runners: 0-0-1
Japanese-trained runners: 0-0-1
Aidan O’Brien (3-2-11) saddled High Chaparral to win and dead heat win in 2002 & 2003 and in the past 5 years, he had won it 3 times with St Nicholas Abbe, Magician & Found.
Michael Stoute (2-1-5) has saddled 3 winners, 1 second and 2 fourths from 7 runners since 2000.
Todd Pletcher (1-1-6) trained English Channel to finish 3rd-1st in 2006 & 2007.
Thomas Albertrani (0-2-4) has saddled the third in 2011 & 2014.
Richard Mandella (0-2-2) won the race in 2003 and has seen his 2 runners in past 10 years both make the places.
John Gosden (0-2-4) has seen his 4 runners finish 3rd-5th-2nd-2nd.

Price
9 of 10 winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter
The 3 shock winners in since 2000 (20/1, 33/1 & 25/1) were all trained in USA.
Favourites (1-3-10) have won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 8.09.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a son of Sadler’s Wells (ideally Galileo) or out of a Sadler’s Wells mare
- Aged 3 to 5 (European-trained 3yos do very well)
- Finished in the first 4 in grade/group 1 last time (posting RPR of 121+)
- Posted an RPR of 117+ in one or both of last 2 starts
- Had last run in 20 to 50 days ago
- Run 3 to 7 times this year
- Previously won over 1M 2F+ (ideally won over 1M 4F)
- Won a grade/group 1
- Finished in the first 5 in the Arc
- Finished in first 3 in St Leger, King George, King Edward VII and/or Prix Foy
- Finished in first 2 in Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and/or Sword Dancer Invitational
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Michael Stoute Todd Pletcher or Richard Mandella