CHARLIE HALL CHASE TRENDS 2016

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The Grade 2 Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase takes place at Wetherby on Saturday 29th October. Run over 3M 1F, it generally attracts some of the best staying chasers around and winners since 2000 include Gold Cup hero See More Business, Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Our Vic and 2006 Hennessy Gold Cup winner State Of Play. In 2012 Silviniaco Conti won the race prior to winning the Betfair Chase on next start, while Cue Card did likewise last year and also added the King George.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age
5yo: 0-1-3
6yo: 2-0-4
7yo: 0-3-7
8yo: 4-1-18
9yo: 4-5-17
10yo: 0-2-15
11yo+: 0-0-6
horses aged 5 to 8: 6-5-32
horses aged 9 or older: 4-7-38
There has been no winner aged older than 9 since 2005.

Weight
There is a penalty structure for this race:
Winner of a Class 3 weight-for-age chase or a Class 2 handicap chase receives 4lb.
Winner of a Class 2 weight-for-age chase or a Class 1 handicap chase receives 6lb.
Winner of a Class 1 weight-for-age chase receives 10lb
horses carrying 11-10: 2-3-17
horses carrying 11-3 to 11-6: 4-4-27
horses carrying 11-0 or less: 4-5-26
Only 2 horses carrying max weight of 11-10 have managed to win this in past 10 years, Our Vic & Menorah, who were both previous grade 1 chase winners.

Recent/Past Form
6 of 10 winners had run 5 to 11 times over fences (4 exceptions had run in 17 to 19 chases)
10 of 10 winners had won at least 2 chases
10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 156+ in last 3 runs
10 of 10 winners were having their first chase start of the season
10 of 10 winners were having their first start over fences in over 180 days
10 of 10 winners had won a graded chase
8 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ (Deep Purple had won over 2M 4F & had never run over further, Menorah had won over 2M 6F & finished 2nd in Aintree Bowl)
4 of 4 second season chaser winners had won a grade 1 or 2 novice chase

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Cue Card): 234P (0-2-4)
Oaksey Chase winner (Menorah): 1P (1-0-2)
Harrison James And Hardie Novices' Chase winner (Blaklion): 2 (0-1-1)
King George winner (Cue Card): 55 (0-0-2)
Aintree Bowl winner (Cue Card): 45 (0-0-2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 74P5
3 of 10 winners ran in Aintree Bowl, finishing 352
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 18
2 of 10 winners ran in Ryanair Chase, finishing 90
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Betfair Chase, finishing 44
2 of 4 season chaser winners finished in first 2 in graded novice chase at that year's Aintree Festival
6 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Aintree National Festival

Trainers
David Pipe (1-2-5) trained Our Vic to win in 2006 and has saddled runner-up in 2009 & 2015.
Paul Nicholls (1-2-9) trained Silviniaco Conti to win this in 2013, he had previously won back to back runnings in 1999 & 2000 with See More Business.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-5) trained Ollie Magern to win in 2005 & 2007.
Kim Bailey (1-0-1) & Philip Hobbs (1-0-5) trained the winners in 2013 & 2014 respectively.
Sackville won this for Ireland in 2001 but all 7 Irish-trained runners since 2002 have been unplaced.

Price
The last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below
The last 10 winners have all come from the first 4 in the betting and have been sent off no bigger than 8/1.
Favourites (3-5-10) have won 3 of the last 10 but show a level stakes loss of 0.65.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 9
- Carrying 11-6 or less (or previous grade 1 chase winner)
- Finished in first 3 last time
- Posted an RPR of 156+ in last 3 chase starts
- Having first run of the season
- Previously run in 5 to 11 chases (no more than 19)
- Second season chasers that won a grade 1 or 2 novice chase do well
- Previously won a graded chase worth 25K+
- Won over 3M+ (or placed in a grade 1 or 2 chase over 3M+)
- Ran in a chase at Aintree in April (ideally finishing in first 5 in Bowl Chase)
- Ran in 2015 King George, Hennessy Gold Cup and/or Betfair Chase
- Priced 8/1 or shorter