GREATWOOD HURDLE TRENDS 2016

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The StanJames.com Greatwood Hurdle is the highlight on day 3 of Cheltenham’s November meeting, on Sunday 13th November. It is a 2M 87y handicap hurdle and is open to 4yos and upwards. It usually attracts a high class field and recent winners include Rooster Booster, Detroit City, Sizing Europe, Khyber Kim and Menorah.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 4-7-41

5yo: 4-10-48

6yo: 1-5-37

7yo: 1-2-19

8yo: 0-2-10

9yo+: 0-0-8

4 & 5 year olds have won 8 of last 10 from just over 54.6% of total runners.

Of the eleven 4yos to make the frame, 9 had run on the flat, with 7 of those rated 80+ on the level and the other 2 were winners in France with no rating in Britain or Ireland. 5 of the 11 ran in Triumph Hurdle that year (including 3 winners) and 2 had run in Fred Winter.

In the past 15 years the only two winners that were aged over 6 were Khyber Kim in 2009 (went on to finish 2nd in Champion Hurdle and win grade 1 Aintree Hurdle that season) & Rooster Booster in 2002 (who won Champion Hurdle later that season).



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

horses carrying 11-4 or more: 6-7-42

horses carrying 10-10 to 11-3: 2-10-62

horses carrying 10-9 or less: 2-9-59

Preference is for higher weights, horses carrying 11-4+ have won 6 of 10 from 25.7% of total runners.

Top Weight: 1282031808726 (2-4-13) have a good record, having won 4 of the last 14.

horses carrying a penalty (0-2-4) have gained 5 places from 7 runners since 2003.



Official Ratings

horses rated 140 or more: 6-11-51

horses rated 130 to 139: 2-9-83

horses rated 129 or less: 2-6-29

horses officially rated 140+ have won 6 of last 10 from approximately 31.3% of total runners.

9 of 10 winners were racing off a career high mark in a handicap hurdle (although 5 of 10 winners were making their handicap hurdle debut)



Recent/Past Form

7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed hurdles start (3 exceptions unplaced in a graded hurdle)

8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their last two hurdles runs

8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers (1 exception was Olofi who was 5th & 2nd in two previous runnings)

9 of 10 winners had run no more than 9 times over hurdles

8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 2 handicap hurdles (exceptions had run in 5 & 8 previously)

10 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap hurdle (8 had yet to win a handicap hurdle)

5 of 10 winners were running in their first handicap hurdle

6 of 10 winners had run on the flat (4 of 5 that had run in Britain were rated 94+ on the level, other had only run in France on flat)

3 of 10 winners had won a bumper

7 of 10 winners had run in a listed or graded hurdle on their previous NH start

8 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher hurdle (1 exception was a group 2 winner on the flat)



Other Races

Record of horses that finished in first 9 in Triumph Hurdle: 5185071261 (3-1-10)

Highest placed finisher from Anniversary 4YO Hurdle: 721706 (1-1-6)

William Hill Handicap Hurdle winner (Sternrubin): 168 (1-0-3)

Scottish Triumph Hurdle Trial winner (Tommy Silver): 2 (0-1-1)

Previous year's Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle winner (Leoncavallo): 2 (0-1-1)

Dovecote Novice Hurdle winner (Winter Escape): 80 (0-0-2)

Scottish Champion Hurdle winner (Ch'Tibello): 87 (0-0-2)

2 of 10 winners ran in Top Novices' Hurdle, finishing 29

3 of 4 winners aged 5 ran in Supreme Novices' Hurdle, finishing 019

3 of 4 winners aged 4 ran in Triumph Hurdle, finishing 199

3 of last 4 winners aged 6+ ran in County Hurdle, finishing 100

8 of 10 winners ran at that year's Cheltenham Festival (22nd & 16th in County Hurdle, 13th, 1st & 9th Supreme and 1st, 9th & 9th Triumph)



Trainers

Philip Hobbs (3-0-14) has trained the winner in 2002, 2006, 2010 & 2014.

Paul Nicholls (2-1-11) has gained 3 wins and 3 places from his 16 runners since 2003, last 2 winners were aged 4.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-6) the winner in 2009.

Alan King (0-4-8) has saddled 4 placed finishers from 8 runners.

Nicky Henderson (0-2-6) has saddled 2 runners in past 10 years.

Dan Skelton (0-1-2) trained the runner-up in 2015.

Jonjo O’Neill (0-0-5) trained the winner in 2005 but his last 5 were unplaced.

Irish based trainers (1-6-33) have won just 1 of the last 10 renewals. The last 2 Irish-trained winners were NH bred 5yos that had won a Punchestown Hurdle in April/May and were having their first run in a handicap hurdle.



Racing Tactics

7 of 10 winners were held up early on (2 of 3 winners that raced prominently throughout were top class grade 1 hurdlers Detroit City & Sizing Europe).



Price

10 of 10 winners were sent off at 12/1 or lower

Generally this is a race in which market leaders dominate, 4 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting.

Favourites (1-4-13) have won just 1 of last 10 renewals & show a £1 level stakes loss of £7.80.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 5 & ran in 2016 Supreme or 4yo rated 80+ on flat & ran in 2016 Triumph or Fred Winter Hurdle

- Officially rated 140+ over hurdles (racing off career high mark)

- Official rated 94+ on the flat (or won a bumper)

- Finished in the first three on last NH start (ideally in a class 1 hurdle)

- First or second season hurdler (or placed in this last year)

- Previously run 3 to 9 times over hurdles

- Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (handicap debutante favoured)

- Yet to win a handicap hurdle

- Won a hurdle at class 2 level or better

- Ran in a class 1 hurdle at 2016 Cheltenham Festival

- Tends to be held up

- Trained by Philip Hobbs, Alan King or Paul Nicholls

- Priced 12/1 or shorter