12.40 Cheltenham – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial.


A very interesting juvenile contest to start proceedings on day two and history suggests it pays to concentrate on those at the head of the betting, with eight of the last 10 winners going off at 4/1 or shorter.

Another interesting trend worth noting is that eight of the last 10 winners of the race had some previous hurdling experience in the UK, seven of which had won on these shores. However, the two horses in the last ten years to win on their UK debut’s where Hinterland and Sam Winner, both trained by Paul Nicholls. The champion trainer is again represented by a UK hurdling debutant in the shape of Wealth Des Mottes, who has had one run to date when winning at Clairefontaine in July. This son of Silver Frost received a favourable mention from Pupil Assistant Harry Derham earlier in the week and clearly comes into the race with untapped potential. However, he has to give weight away to all of his rivals, as well as race fitness, so is passed over on this occasion but is certainly one to watch in the future for his powerful stable.

Dino Velvet is another interesting runner and he represents the Alan King yard which won the race in 2006 and 2007 with Katchit and Franchoek respectably. King’s excels with his juveniles and this French recruit looks the perfect type for this division having gained some experience on the level in France. He’s also had a run for his new trainer when 4th of 8 at Chester in September so should be straight enough for this. Dino Velvet hails from the same sources which recommend the yards smart sorts Walkon, Mille Chief, Gibralfaro and Oceane, which itself commands respect. But as touched on earlier in the piece, the lack of hurdling experience could catch him out on this occasion and may be one to follow on his next start.

This leads me to a horse that caught my eye four weeks ago, DEFI DU SEUIL. Hailing from the Philip Hobbs yard which won the race in 2014 with Golden Doyen, he looks to hold the strongest credentials going into this race. He has the all-important UK hurdling experience thanks to a routine win at Ffos Las, admittedly he was 1/4 and was entitled to win the race, but he basically cantered the whole way round and won as easy as you like. His jumping was very professional for a juvenile on his hurdling debut and he can put this experience to good use here. Prior to joining Philip Hobbs the son of Voix Du Nord had won the second of two outings on the Flat, doing so impressively and showing he possesses a great engine and smart turn of foot. He certainly ticks a lot of boxes and rates as an exciting juvenile for his powerful connections and it would be disappointing if he wasn’t involved in the finish.

Of the others East Indies and Nucky Thompson both arrive on the back of recent victories, and have decent Flat form in the book, but are likely to struggle to give 4lbs to the likes of Defi Du Seuil and Dino Velvet in a much deeper contest.

Nick Williams won the race in 2009 with Pistolet Noir and he saddles Diable De Sivola. He hung badly at Huntingdon last time so did well to finish as close as he did and back on a left-handed track he could sneak a place if everything goes to plan this time around.

MY Advice

DEFI DE SEUIL – 2pts win @ 9/4 (bet365)



1.50 Cheltenham – BetVictor Handicap Chase (Grade 3)


A quality turnout for this Grade 3 staying chase and last year’s winner, Sausalito Sunrise, is back for more, this time off a mark 14lb higher, but it’s genuinely possible that he’s a 14lb better horse now. His third from a mark of 159, 1lb higher than today, at Sandown Park’s season-ending Bet365 Gold Cup (Whitbread) was a superb run on ground that was arguably too quick for him to show his best – all his wins have come on at least good to soft – so it can be marked up. The fact he’s been dropped to 158 makes him very tempting in a race that Sam Winner won off top weight in 2014, but you can’t help but think that on his reappearance, he’ll find one or two better handicapped.

Minella Rocco is the obvious horse in the lineup in terms of hype, but for me, this National Hunt Chase winner has plenty to prove off a huge mark of 155, especially with his stable in typically quiet early-season form. It was a good performance at the Festival to defeat Native River, but he needed plenty of time at the start of last season, like many of Jonjo O’Neill’s string, to hit top gear and I have a feeling it could well be the case again, even though he’ll be a very popular choice for many.

Upswing is another from the O’Neill stable who looks to hold claims in this; especially given he was a close second in the race last season and has a 13lb swing with Sausalito Sunrise. His last three runs were a little limp though and he’ll have to bounce back in a big way if he’s to challenge – he was particularly reluctant in his first race of the season at Chepstow, being pulled up after 13 fences.

Fifth in this race last season, Shotgun Paddy is a dependable old campaigner and should run his race once again here. Emma Lavelle’s gelding has slipped down the weights and even though he probably wants further than this ideally, he’s a well-handicapped contender off 4lb lower than for his Eider Chase second in February.

The in-form Colin Tizzard has two in the race and while his ex-Irish horse Viconte Du Noyer is an intriguing contender up significantly in trip on his stable debut, it is Fourth Act that looks the clear stable number one. He ran well at Ascot in the Sodexo Gold Cup Chase, a similar race to this over slightly shorter, showing that this longer trip might well be able to draw more out of him as he was staying on well at the end. He races off the same mark here, but his only trip to Cheltenham previously was a total write off as he never travelled a yard in the Close Brothers Listed Chase at the festival this year, which does go down as a worry. However, he will have come on for his reappearance in a hot race and certainly holds a chance.

Five of the last nine winners of the race have carried less than 10st 3lbs and over this far a trip, every pound can count. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ COGRY sneaks in at the bottom of the weights here, and complete with Ryan Hatch’s valuable 3lb claim, he will only have to carry 9st 13lb round the course come Saturday afternoon. He has some good form in staying handicaps off higher marks than this, so he looks a very well-handicapped animal off 134 if he could only put together a solid round of jumping. It’s been his Achilles heel in the past and it was his undoing on his last run over C&D as he fell at the first, but he was very well-supported that day and that confidence can’t go without being noted. It looks as if he’s prominent in the betting already for this and taking the early prices could be a shrewd move for a horse that finished a two and a half-length fourth in this race last year off a 2lb higher mark. He’s still nice and fresh after not getting past the first last time and if he can hold it together, he has to have a big shout of finally fulfilling his potential in a race that seven-year-olds have won four of the last five runnings.

MY Advice


COGRY – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (BetVictor, William Hill)




2.25 Cheltenham – BetVictor Gold Cup.


One of the strongest trends associated with this race is the one related to official ratings and the desired bracket is between 136 and 150. This accounts for all but one of the last ten winners, with Al Ferof having won off a mark of 159 four years ago. In terms of this year’s field it eliminates the top seven as they appear on the racecard (from Ballynagour down to Sizing Granite) as well as the bottom two Thomas Crapper and Potters Cross.

When we consider the age of recent winners it is clear that seven-year-olds come out on top, having been successful in six of the last ten renewals. Unusually for this race there are only two seven-year-olds in this year’s lineup, Johnny Farrelly’s Stiletto and Rebecca Curtis’ Vintage Vinnie. Of the other four races in the last decade two have gone the way of six-year-olds which is a positive for the likes of Art Mauresque, Double Shuffle, Aso and As De Mee.

Weight can often play a big part in the outcome of competitive races such as this and the BetVictor Gold Cup is no exception. Of the last ten renewals only Al Ferof has carried more than 11st 5lb to victory which confirms that Ballynagour down to Sizing Granite are up against it.

Strong form on their most recent start is something that has served horses well in this race in the past. Seven of the last ten winners had finished no worse than fourth on their last start, something that all but four of this year’s field have in common. However, this stat has to be taken with a pinch of salt as many of these horses will be making their seasonal debuts on Saturday so recent form may be as far back as March or April.

In terms of trainers, there are three yards which have tasted success more than once in the last decade, they are Nigel Twiston-Davies (2008 & 2010), Jonjo O’Neill (2006 & 2013) and the Paul Nicholls yard (2012 & 2014). The first named is without a runner this year but it is worth taking a second look at runners from the other yards.

The final factor worthy of mention is the betting and historically this is not a race in which it is worth taking a punt on one at a big price. In fact six of the last ten winners were sent off at single figure SPs with Little Josh (20/1) the biggest priced winner in the last decade. More Of That currently leads the market at around 9/2 with the likes of Frodon, Double Shuffle and As De Mee also available at single-figure odds.

Shortlist

AS DE MEE – 5/6

Frodon – 5/6

Stilletto – 4/6


Conclusion

With all of the factors considered the one who comes out on top on the trends front is AS DE MEE. The six-year-old had some smart form as a novice last season chasing home the likes of More Of That and Bristol De Mai. His form somewhat tailed off after that although he did run better than his finishing position suggested in the Topham in April. He had a wind operation over the summer and had no trouble getting off the mark at Fontwell on his return to action last month. He sits towards the foot of the weights on 10st 8lb and with his wind operation seeming to have done the trick, he looks to have a leading chance.

As De Mee’s stablemate Frodon also makes the shortlist having also missed just one of the trends. Paul Nicholls’ gelding has made a fine start to his career over fences, winning his first three starts including the Grade 2 Rising Star Novices’ Chase at Wincanton last weekend. He ticks plenty of the trends boxes but one major obstacle he has to overcome is the age trend. We mentioned earlier that seven-year-olds held the upper hand in recent years but Frodon is bidding to become the first four-year-old winner of the race. He did jump a fence as a three-year-old in France so is perhaps a little more forward in his development than we would expect a four-year-old to be.

The final member of the shortlist is Stilletto who has his first run since leaving the yard of Paul Nicholls. Now in the care of Johnny Farrelly, he won twice over fences last term at Catterick and Leicester but fell early on at the Festival in March. The seven-year-old has only had the six starts over fences so far so there could still be more to come from the gelding.

MY Advice

AS DE MEE – 0.5pt e/w @ 9/1 (bet365, SkyBet)



3.00 Cheltenham – Regulatory Finance Solutions Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)


This looks like one of the trickiest puzzles on the card, but looking at the past ten winners of the race, it becomes clear that no winner in that time has carried more than 10st 13lb. That’s some bad news for the ‘bigger names’ in this, such as Irish Saint, Fingal Bay and Out Sam, who begin their seasons over the smaller obstacles before presumably returning to Chasing. The Eaglehaslanded looks a bit harshly handicapped off 142 and although the decent ground and Jack Sherwood’s 5lb claim will help on that front, he might need to come down the weights a little to be a win contender.

Allysson Monterg is a tough horse that I like – he finished sixth in the brutal Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at the Festival this year and if he’s come back from his break in good form, he might go well. He is carrying 11st 1lb and he’ll probably be better when the ground is softer, but Richard Hobson’s charge should give his running under Aidan Coleman.

Valhalla, Will O’ The West and Very Extravagant are the three current co-favourites at the time of writing and it’s easy to see why after all three showed plenty last time out. Valhalla was second in a competitive 2m 5f handicap won by Midnight Shot here three weeks ago, looking as if this step up in trip would suit, so off a 3lb higher mark, he looks sure to be involved at the business end.

Henry Daly’s Will O’ The West ran very well indeed in a Pertemps Qualifier over a furlong or so shorter here, just going down to Golden Doyen and For Good Measure, both very useful types. However, the 2lb rise he received is added to the loss of Jack Sherwood’s 5lb claim, so he’s gone up 7lb effectively. That makes it a tough ask to go and win here, even though he’s clearly a five-year-old on the up.

After bagging a hat trick of wins, Neil Mulholland’s Very Extravagant is certainly a mare going the right way, she’s been superb since she’s been stepped up to staying trips and is as genuine as they come. This trip will suit, as will the relatively sound surface and with no weight on her back, she could well be staying on nicely up the hill at the end. However, the same comment appears in all of her last three races – ‘a weak race’ – and this step up in class is certainly a significant one, so she could find that it’s a leap too far, no matter how genuine she is.

Some Kinda Lama, on the other hand, is going for the hat trick after landing two races over this trip at Hereford in October. Again, we’re looking at a significant rise in class of the company he’ll be racing against, but he’s in such good form, it’s hard to dismiss him. Charlie Mann had a winner at Cheltenham on Friday and who’s to say that he won’t make it two with an unexposed, progressive contender such as this five-year-old. The 8lb rise in the weights won’t help him though and he’ll probably prefer faster ground than the likely good to soft he’ll get here but five year olds have done fairly well over the past few years in this race despite a small sample size and he’s certainly one to consider each-way.

However, there is another five-year-old that looks to be in with a big chance in this and after a very creditable second to the well-handicapped Paddy Power (now Bet Victor) Gold Cup winner Caid Du Berlais at Aintree, GOODBYE DANCER is the selection. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ string is in good form at the moment, with Astracad winning here on Friday and Wholestone going close later in the day, so there are no worries there and this horse is certainly race-fit after 3 runs already this season. He races off the same mark as when second last week and retains the helpful 3lb claim of the excellent Jamie Bargary, who’s in very good form himself (6 winners, 4 places from last 17 rides). As just a five-year-old, it’s more than reasonable to expect further progression and improvement, so if he’s stepped up on that last effort, he has to have a huge chance of hitting the frame at the very least here – 16/1 certainly looks a generous offer.

MY Advice:

GOODBYE DANCER 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power)




3.35 Martin & Co Jewellers Intermediate Handicap Hurdle.


A competitive big field handicap hurdle which has been dominated by 5 and 6-year-olds in recent times, taking nine of the last 10 runnings. Black Corton is likely to be a popular selection for Champion trainer Paul Nicholls arriving here on the back of two wins. However, whilst he promises to stay this trip, this is his first try over this far. It is also his first run in a handicap against some hardened types who are proven off their current marks, so he does have some question marks to answer.

Meme’s horse is an interesting runner for Harry Fry but he only has two runs over hurdles to his name, so may prove vulnerable to some more streetwise rivals. Who Dares Wins is a likeable type and has plenty of experience, and whilst he ran a cracking race behind Ballyoptic in the Silver Trophy last time out, he it’s hard to see this four-year-old shouldering top weight to victory.

Traditional Dancer and Midnight Shot both arrive here gunning for a hat-trick of wins and cannot be overlooked lightly. The former has recent wins at Kelso and Carlisle to his name but he has a lot more on his plate here off an 8lb higher mark, in a stronger contest. The latter was an impressive winner over course and distance and looks the best place to add to his tally of wins. However, a 7lb rise puts him on a career high mark and could be vulnerable to something better handicapped.

Board Of Trade runs off the same mark as when second to a well-handicapped rival at Fontwell and is still unexposed. As is Emma Lavelle’s Fortunate George who was an impressive winner when last seen in April. He has 7lb higher mark to contend with on his seasonal debut but there could still be mileage in his mark and warrants the upmost respect if ready to roll.

For me the one horse that has the least question marks to answers is FOR GOOD MEASURE, a horse I have followed throughout his career being a brother to the stable’s Balthazar King. He has gone agonisingly close on his last two starts, being beaten a head and a short-head, and for me remains feasibly treated off a 3lb higher mark. He looked a shade keen on his seasonal debut at the course 21 days ago and the slight step down in trip looks a wise move. His RPR ratings have steadily improved on each of his last three runs and there is every reason he is still improving. JP McManus owned last season’s winner of the race and he looks to have a strong candidate again with this lad. At 9/1 he looks very solid each-way play in the race.

The main dangers could be Robin Of Locksley who ran a fine race from the back behind the Midnight Shot, and the 3lb pull in the weights should see him on the premises. Top Of The Town could also have a big say having finished just behind For Good Measure last time. A 2lb pull gives him every chance but I expect the selection to have more improvement in him.

MY Advice


FOR GOOD MEASURE – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (SkyBet, BetVictor, Paddy Power)