BETFAIR CHASE TRENDS 2016

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The Betfair Chase takes place at Haydock on Saturday, 19th November. It’s a grade 1 chase run over 3 miles and has been won by Kauto Star four times and also by another Gold Cup winner, Imperial Commander. Silviniaco Conti & Cue Card have won the last 4 runnings between them and are both entered again this year.


Below we take a look at the trends for the 10 previous runnings:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 2-1-3

7yo: 2-4-15

8yo: 1-3-22

9yo: 3-3-17

10yo: 1-1-5

11yo+: 1-0-4

Ages of the winners has been fairly well spread out.

horses aged 6 have gained 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 runners, all 3 were French bred.

4 of 5 winners aged 9+ had finished 1st or 2nd in a previous Betfair Chase, exception was Snoopy Loopy who benefitted from a final fence fall from Kauto Star.


Breeding

French Bred: 6-8-27

Irish Bred: 2-4-22

British Bred: 2-0-17

Record of French breds aged 6 or 7: 3-5-11

Record of French breds aged 8 or older: 3-2-15 (3 wins came from previous winners, Silviniaco Conti & Kauto Star)


Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had had 0 or 1 run that season

9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start

8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 167+ on last completed start

8 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 19 times over fences (2 exceptions were Kauto Star winning it for 3rd & 4th time)

8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+

9 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 chase

8 of 10 winners had won a graded hurdle (one exception 3rd in a grade 1 hurdle)

5 of 10 winners had previously won at Haydock (3 exceptions having first course run and 2 others were placed on one previous runs here)


Other Races

Previous year's winner (Cue Card): 61U342 (1-2-6)

King George winner (Cue Card): 1U12412 (3-2-7)

Charlie Hall Chase winner (Irish Cavalier): 764312 (1-1-6)

Ascot Chase winner (Silvianaco Conti): U1 (1-0-2)

Bet365 Oaksey Chase winner (Menorah): 2 (0-1-1)

7 of 10 winners ran in previous season's King George, finishing 1153515

5 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 1U234

5 of 10 winners ran in Cheltenham Gold Cup, finishing 11134

4 of 10 winners ran in Charlie Hall Chase last time, finishing 3151

3 of 10 winners ran in Aintree Bowl Chase, finishing U12

3 of 10 winners ran in Old Roan Chase, finishing 123

2 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Gold Cup, finishing P4


Trainers

Paul Nicholls (6-2-11) saddled Kauto Star to win it 4 times and also trained Silviniaco Conti to win it in 2012 & 2014.

Colin Tizzard (2-0-4) trained Cue Card to win this in 2013 & 2015.

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-6) has saddled Imperial Commander to finish 1st & 2nd.

David Pipe (0-3-6) has trained the 2nd in 2008 & 2012 and 3rd in 2009 & 2014.

Philip Hobbs (0-1-2) saddled Menorah to finish 2nd in 2014 and Jonjo O’Neill (0-1-5) saddled runner-up in 2007.


Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter

The slightly fortuitous Snoopy Loopy and Cue Card (2013) have been the only 2 winners to come from outside the top 3 in the betting.

The favourite (4-3-10) have won 4 of the 10 runnings, giving a £1 level stakes loss of £2.52.


Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- French bred 6yos do particularly well

- Finished in the first 3 on last completed chase start

- Posted an RPR of 167+ last time

- Run 6 to 15 times over fences (or won the race previously)

- Finished in first 2 in a grade 1 chase

- Won over 3 miles or further

- Having first run this season or finished in first 3 in Old Roan or Charlie Hall last time

- Finished in first 5 in 2015 Betfair Chase and/or King George

- Finished in first 4 in 2016 Cheltenham Gold Cup

- Priced 9/1 or shorter

- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Colin Tizzard