The StanJames.com Morgiana Hurdle is a 2 mile grade 1 hurdle that takes place at Punchestown on Sunday 20th November. It has been won by some of the best Irish hurdlers of recent times, including Limestone Lad, Brace Inca, Hardy Eustace, Solwhit and, Hurricane Fly. Willie Mullins won the race for fifth straight year with Nichols Canyon in 2015.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

4yo: 0-0-2

5yo: 3-0-8

6yo: 1-2-12

7yo: 2-2-9

8yo: 1-0-5

9yo: 1-0-5

10yo: 1-0-2

11yo+: 1-0-2

5 and 7 year olds both have good record in this. The 4 winners aged 8+ were Hardy Eustace and Hurricane Fly (three times), who had both previously won the Cheltenham and Punchestown Champion Hurdles in their career.

7 of last 8 winners aged 5 to 7 had won either a grade 1 novice hurdle at that year’s Punchestown Festival or finished in the first 4 in the Punchestown Champion hurdle that year.



Gender

Record of mares: 22453 (0-0-5)

The 5 mares to run in the race went off at prices of 7/2, 5/2, 50/1, 50/1 & 10/1.



Recent/Past Form

8 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 in last hurdles start (both exceptions unplaced in a grade 1 over 2m4f-3m)

9 of 10 winners had previously posted an RPR of 157+ (last 7 winners did so last time out)

9 of 10 winners (last 9) had not run over hurdles for over 150 days

10 of 10 winners had won a hurdles race over 2 miles

10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle

8 of 10 winners had previously won at the track (2 exceptions had finished in first 3 a grade 1 over this CD)



Other Races

Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 321111 (4-0-6)

Ryanair Hurdle winner (Nichols Canyon): 3111 (3-0-4)

Previous season's winner (Nichols Canyon): 3111 (3-0-4)

Champion Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 3122 (1-2-4)

Christmas Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 12 (1-1-2)

Red Mills Trial Hurdle winner (Sempre Medici): 61 (1-0-2)

Aintree Hurdle winner (Annie Power): 21 (1-0-2)

Istabraq Hurdle winner (Ivan Grozny): 325 (0-0-3)

7 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown, finishing 5213111

5 of 10 winners ran in the Ryanair Hurdle at Leopardstown, finishing 21411

5 of 10 winners ran in Champion Hurdle, finishing 64314

3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing 912

3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Morgiana, finishing 111

2 of 2 second season hurdles winners ran in Royal Bond Novice Hurdle, finishing 11



Punchestown Festival

Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Vroum Vroum Mag): 11122 (3-2-5)

Record of horses that finished 1st or 2nd in Punchestown Champion Hurdle: 311111212 (6-2-9)

Tattersalls Ireland Champion Novice Hurdle winner (Jer's Girl): 1 (1-0-1)

AES Champion 4yo Hurdle winner (Apple's Jade): 4 (0-0-1)

6 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 122112

8 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a grade 1 at that year's Punchestown Festival



Trainers

Willie Mullins (5-2-12) has won the last 5 renewals of the Morgiana



Price

9 of 10 winners were priced 7/1 or lower

Hardy Eustace at 14/1 in 2008 has been the only big surprise in past 10 years.

Favourites (5-2-10) have won 5 of last 10 renewals but show a £1 small level stakes loss of £0.83.



Summary:

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Gelding

- Finished in the first 3 in a graded hurdle last time out

- Has posted an RPR of 157+ last time

- Won a 2M grade 1 hurdle

- Course winner

- Finished in first 3 in Irish Champion and/or Ryanair Hurdle

- Ran in 2016 Cheltenham Champion Hurdle or Aintree Hurdle

- First 2 in 2016 Punchestown Champion Novice or a grade 1 novice hurdle at the Festival

- Trained by Willie Mullins

- From first 3 in the betting