Quinz - 3.00 Kempton - He is currently trading at 8-1 on Betfair and i think that is serious e/w value as i feel absolutely certain he'll finish in the first 3 and i reckon he's good enough to win. I've watched all his races today and He is a fantastic jumper, actually one of the best jumpers in the novice ranks in my opinion, which is very important in this race. Nacarat's main asset is his jumping and he looks sure to go well for a third year in a row. Quinz has to carry 11st which may seem like a lot on what he has achieved though he is a very big horse and looks the type that would carry any weight easily enough. I thought they made far too much use of him at cheltenham the last day, which set the race up for Time for Rupert. He was a well beaten 3rd that day after not quite getting home, though if you watch the closing stages again when Dickie Johnson knew he was beaten he eased of him completely and probably would have been a lot closer to 2nd had he not. Being a flat track(in comparison to cheltenham) Kempton looks sure to suit and he is guaranteed to stay the 3 miles having won twice over the distance going right handed. The ground tomorrow is forecast as good to soft which should be near enough his ideal going. Philip Hobbs has this lad entered in the national and he looks the type that could run that close in a year or two (Is a very similar type of horse in my opinion to big fella thanks who finished 3rd in a better renewal of this race two years ago). Of the opposition Fistral beach and Nacarat look the dangers. I'm not convinced by Fistral beach as to me he does not jump well enough. I backed him in this race last year where he fell, and putting that down to a once off i backed him nto, where he jumped terribly and was beaten a long way by Prince De Beauchanene. They claim to have sorted some of his problems out with a wind op but i don't see that improving his jumping enough to win this. Nacarat is nearly impossible to rule out and has been in very good form this season though i can't help feeling that if he was going to win this race twice, then he missed his chance last season as only 1 horse has won this race twice in the last 20 years, Docklands Express and he did it in consecutive years. I was quite sweet on Bakbenscher earlier this week but after watching some of his races I don't think he'll be able to cope with the pace Nacarat will set and his jumping will suffer as a result. The ground and the fact that his last run was only 13 days ago are also negatives. This trip looks to long for Hey Big Spender and he seems better in a smaller field and also has a lot of weight. So with his 4 main rivals ruled out (sort of!) i can see Quinz sitting just off the pace behind Nacarat and Hey Big Spender before pressing on 3 to stretch the field out. I have to admit that i'm slightly worried that something down the weights could collar him close home but for me he is a confident shout to win (or at least be in the first 3!) 8/1